NBA games

SA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
118–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA33351931118
LAC2519342199

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 29 22 8 5
Stephon Castle S 33 20 4 5
Dylan Harper 25 19 2 5
Devin Vassell S 29 14 10 2
Julian Champagnie S 28 13 8 4
Keldon Johnson 27 13 6 1
Luke Kornet S 25 8 6 5
Harrison Barnes 21 3 0 2
Harrison Ingram 3 2 0 0
Carter Bryant 10 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 24 6 5
Bennedict Mathurin 27 18 7 2
John Collins S 25 15 6 0
Jordan Miller 26 12 0 0
Darius Garland S 29 11 2 3
Brook Lopez S 24 6 6 3
Kobe Sanders 13 6 1 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 4 4 1
Kris Dunn 21 3 1 4
Nicolas Batum 6 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 15-foot floating jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Darius Garland LAC
13%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
5 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
6 John Collins LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
9%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
16%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.3 6.0 3.7
2 Darius Garland LAC 22.7 3.0 7.7
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.6 6.8 9.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.3 5.1 2.5
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.4 4.2 6.0
6 Dylan Harper SA 14.3 4.4 4.6
7 Keldon Johnson SA 14.0 4.0 1.9
8 Devin Vassell SA 12.9 3.5 2.9
9 John Collins LAC 12.1 5.4 1.8
10 Jordan Miller LAC 11.6 3.8 2.5
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.4 4.7 1.7
12 Brook Lopez LAC 10.4 5.1 1.9
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.2 4.0 1.8
14 Harrison Barnes SA 8.4 2.8 1.5
15 Kris Dunn LAC 7.1 3.1 2.7
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 5.9 1.6 1.5
17 Carter Bryant SA 5.3 3.5 1.1
18 Luke Kornet SA 4.8 4.7 1.3
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.5 2.4 0.9
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.0 1.3 1.3
21 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 3.3 1.1 1.4
22 Harrison Ingram SA 3.2 1.8 0.6
23 Mason Plumlee SA 2.8 2.6 0.9
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 0.9 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.6 0.8
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.7 1.3 0.8
27 Sean Pedulla LAC 2.6 0.5 0.7
28 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.3 0.8 0.9
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.