NBA games

NO @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
106–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO32331625106
POR35252830118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home POR
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears 26 21 2 1
Trey Murphy III S 36 19 8 2
Saddiq Bey S 35 15 6 1
Zion Williamson S 29 15 1 3
Derik Queen 28 12 6 7
Herbert Jones S 26 9 4 3
Dejounte Murray S 28 9 8 5
Yves Missi 20 6 7 0
Micah Peavy 12 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 37 27 5 9
Deni Avdija S 37 26 8 7
Toumani Camara S 39 23 4 1
Scoot Henderson S 20 14 1 3
Matisse Thybulle 31 13 5 2
Robert Williams III 23 6 9 1
Donovan Clingan S 22 4 9 2
Kris Murray 20 3 3 1
Sidy Cissoko 9 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
3 Deni Avdija POR
9%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Yves Missi NO
7%
10 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
10%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.3 7.7 7.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.9 5.5 3.0
3 Dejounte Murray NO 20.1 5.6 6.4
4 Trey Murphy III NO 19.1 5.1 3.5
5 Saddiq Bey NO 17.8 4.3 3.1
6 Jerami Grant POR 17.7 3.7 2.2
7 Toumani Camara POR 15.8 4.3 2.4
8 Jrue Holiday POR 15.6 4.4 5.2
9 Scoot Henderson POR 15.2 3.3 4.1
10 Donovan Clingan POR 14.3 11.3 2.2
11 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.0 2.5 3.0
12 Herbert Jones NO 10.0 3.1 2.6
13 Derik Queen NO 7.4 4.7 1.6
14 Kris Murray POR 7.2 3.2 2.5
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.0 3.1 1.4
16 Jordan Poole NO 6.8 2.2 2.3
17 Robert Williams III POR 6.5 8.0 0.9
18 Yves Missi NO 5.8 6.6 1.5
19 Vit Krejci POR 5.2 2.8 1.5
20 Blake Wesley POR 4.7 1.6 1.5
21 DeAndre Jordan NO 4.2 6.0 0.8
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.1 2.3 1.7
23 Jayson Kent POR 3.4 1.6 0.4
24 Kevon Looney NO 3.2 5.4 0.7
25 Trey Alexander NO 3.1 1.3 0.7
26 Chris Youngblood POR 2.8 1.0 0.5
27 Jordan Hawkins NO 2.4 0.8 0.4
28 Micah Peavy NO 1.3 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.