NBA games

CLE @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE30243034118
GS26213331111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home GS
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 25 6 3
Max Strus S 28 24 5 2
James Harden S 37 19 2 5
Jarrett Allen S 24 16 13 0
Dennis Schroder 20 12 2 6
Evan Mobley S 32 12 10 5
Keon Ellis 22 4 3 2
Sam Merrill 28 3 2 5
Thomas Bryant 14 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 35 25 4 4
Gui Santos S 31 25 4 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 16 7 1
LJ Cryer 25 12 1 0
Pat Spencer 16 12 1 2
Draymond Green S 35 8 9 9
Gary Payton II 27 8 12 2
De'Anthony Melton S 26 5 6 3
Will Richard 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
4 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
6 Gui Santos GS
8%
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS
8%
8 James Harden CLE
6%
9 Nate Williams GS
6%
10 Draymond Green GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
18%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.9 4.2 5.9
2 James Harden CLE 23.1 5.3 8.8
3 Evan Mobley CLE 22.4 10.1 3.7
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.9 8.9 1.9
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS 18.3 5.0 3.0
6 Gui Santos GS 18.2 4.8 5.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 17.8 5.7 4.8
8 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.9 4.5 3.3
9 Gary Payton II GS 14.2 5.8 2.5
10 Sam Merrill CLE 12.4 4.0 2.8
11 Draymond Green GS 11.1 5.2 5.4
12 Max Strus CLE 11.1 5.5 2.0
13 Pat Spencer GS 10.8 3.4 4.0
14 Keon Ellis CLE 10.2 2.9 1.7
15 LJ Cryer GS 8.5 1.8 1.5
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 8.1 4.2 0.9
17 Quinten Post GS 8.0 4.1 1.3
18 Will Richard GS 7.2 2.7 1.5
19 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.9 2.5 3.8
20 Nate Williams GS 6.3 2.2 1.0
21 Seth Curry GS 5.6 1.6 1.1
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 2.6 3.3
23 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.7 1.4 1.1
24 Omer Yurtseven GS 4.4 3.2 0.9
25 Malevy Leons GS 4.0 2.1 0.9
26 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.9 2.4 0.9
27 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.8 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.