NBA games

LAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
96–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2130162996
OKC44383027139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home OKC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 27 15 4 1
LeBron James S 26 13 6 2
Jaxson Hayes 21 12 1 1
Luka Doncic S 26 12 4 7
Bronny James 18 10 0 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 9 5 3
Deandre Ayton S 20 8 1 0
Luke Kennard 33 7 4 3
Jake LaRavia S 33 6 8 2
Rui Hachimura 18 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 28 7 7
Isaiah Joe 13 20 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 21 14 0 1
Jalen Williams S 23 10 9 8
Ajay Mitchell 16 10 3 1
Cason Wallace 21 8 5 2
Jared McCain 12 8 2 2
Chet Holmgren S 18 7 4 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 7 6 2
Jaylin Williams 14 7 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC
6%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
6%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 4.3 6.6
2 Austin Reaves LAL 22.5 4.5 5.9
3 Luka Doncic LAL 21.6 6.2 6.0
4 LeBron James LAL 20.0 7.6 6.7
5 Jalen Williams OKC 18.7 3.8 4.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.6 7.5 1.8
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 13.9 3.7 3.4
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.9 8.2 1.1
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.1 2.8 0.8
10 Marcus Smart LAL 8.1 1.9 2.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 2.9 2.1
12 Jared McCain OKC 7.9 1.8 0.9
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.8 5.3 0.8
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.3 1.1
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.8 3.0 1.2
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.5 2.3 1.2
17 Luke Kennard LAL 6.3 2.1 1.3
18 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.2 8.4 3.9
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.2 5.0 1.5
20 Jake LaRavia LAL 6.0 3.3 1.1
21 Nikola Topic OKC 5.9 1.9 2.8
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.8 2.0 0.9
23 Bronny James LAL 3.6 1.4 1.0
24 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.3 2.9 0.8
25 Branden Carlson OKC 2.5 2.0 0.5
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.3 2.1 0.3
27 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.7 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.