NBA games

MIN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
108–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31232628108
DET30242534113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DET
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 35 27 6 6
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 19 5 4
Naz Reid 31 19 6 3
Mike Conley S 22 14 2 2
Terrence Shannon Jr. 18 10 3 1
Bones Hyland 19 6 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 27 6 7 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 5 1 1
Kyle Anderson 26 2 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniss Jenkins S 37 26 5 8
Jalen Duren S 36 22 14 4
Duncan Robinson S 29 15 4 3
Kevin Huerter 22 12 4 2
Javonte Green 27 8 6 0
Ronald Holland II 16 8 0 0
Ausar Thompson S 31 7 9 9
Caris LeVert 14 7 2 0
Paul Reed 16 4 4 1
Tobias Harris S 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniss Jenkins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Daniss Jenkins makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
16%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
5 Daniss Jenkins DET
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
8 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
7%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 25.0 11.2 2.9
2 Julius Randle MIN 21.2 5.8 4.7
3 Daniss Jenkins DET 18.7 4.4 6.6
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 16.2 5.9 4.4
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.6 5.9 4.4
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.8 11.3 1.4
7 Duncan Robinson DET 12.4 3.1 2.6
8 Bones Hyland MIN 12.0 2.2 2.8
9 Naz Reid MIN 11.9 5.7 1.5
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.2 3.7 2.4
11 Kevin Huerter DET 11.1 3.4 2.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 10.1 5.8 3.1
13 Paul Reed DET 9.6 5.2 1.6
14 Caris LeVert DET 9.1 3.4 3.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.6 1.8 2.5
16 Javonte Green DET 5.9 2.4 1.0
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 3.0 1.2
18 Kyle Anderson MIN 4.9 3.2 2.5
19 Mike Conley MIN 3.9 1.8 2.8
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.9 1.2 1.0
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.7 1.5 0.5
22 Tolu Smith DET 3.3 3.3 0.8
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.1 1.7 0.7
24 Joan Beringer MIN 2.7 1.8 0.4
25 Julian Phillips MIN 2.3 0.7 0.3
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.