NBA games

PHX @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
107127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX41192720107
CHA33333625127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHA
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 34 25 4 7
Devin Booker S 36 22 5 6
Dillon Brooks S 29 13 1 3
Grayson Allen 25 13 2 1
Mark Williams 20 12 4 1
Collin Gillespie S 24 6 3 3
Oso Ighodaro S 25 6 9 1
Royce O'Neale 17 3 1 0
Jordan Goodwin 12 3 1 0
Rasheer Fleming 8 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 27 25 4 2
Kon Knueppel S 33 20 3 2
Coby White 20 19 4 3
Brandon Miller S 31 17 4 4
LaMelo Ball S 25 15 2 11
Grant Williams 21 10 7 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 23 8 7 1
Sion James 23 7 5 1
Moussa Diabate S 25 4 10 1
Tre Mann 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Gillespie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Collin Gillespie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
13%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
5 Jalen Green PHX
9%
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX
9%
7 Mark Williams PHX
8%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
28%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 3.7 6.2
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.1 4.9 6.4
3 Jalen Green PHX 21.1 4.6 3.8
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.4 4.5 2.1
5 Brandon Miller CHA 19.1 4.4 3.9
6 Coby White CHA 18.4 4.0 3.3
7 Grayson Allen PHX 17.0 2.8 4.7
8 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.7 5.6 3.3
9 Miles Bridges CHA 16.2 5.0 2.4
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.8 6.5 3.5
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.9 3.2 4.2
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.0 4.2 2.1
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.7 5.7 2.1
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.4 8.6 1.9
15 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.2 3.7 0.7
16 Mark Williams PHX 6.8 6.3 0.6
17 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.7 3.8 1.0
18 Grant Williams CHA 6.0 3.0 1.4
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 3.7 1.2
20 Sion James CHA 5.4 2.6 2.0
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.3 4.0 0.4
22 Josh Green CHA 4.2 1.5 0.8
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.4 1.5 0.6
24 Koby Brea PHX 3.2 0.9 1.0
25 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.0 1.6 0.9
26 Tre Mann CHA 2.7 1.0 0.7
27 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.4 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.