NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
127–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35352631127
GS26233430113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 29 41 18 3
Julian Champagnie S 26 15 3 2
Stephon Castle S 33 15 7 11
Harrison Barnes 27 13 6 3
Dylan Harper 24 13 2 5
Keldon Johnson 26 11 3 1
De'Aaron Fox S 25 11 4 4
Devin Vassell S 28 8 2 4
Mason Plumlee 7 0 0 0
Carter Bryant 17 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nate Williams S 47 18 4 1
LJ Cryer S 23 17 1 3
Omer Yurtseven 29 17 8 4
Draymond Green S 21 14 2 1
Pat Spencer 38 14 8 7
Brandin Podziemski S 17 14 6 5
Seth Curry 10 12 2 0
Malevy Leons 29 5 4 5
Will Richard S 26 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 13-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Brandin Podziemski GS
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 De'Anthony Melton GS
10%
6 Gui Santos GS
10%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.1 11.8 4.3
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.8 6.4 8.8
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.0 4.2 6.6
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.8 5.8 4.4
5 Gui Santos GS 17.6 4.7 5.1
6 Moses Moody GS 15.8 3.4 2.8
7 Dylan Harper SA 15.0 4.3 4.8
8 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.6 4.4 3.2
9 Gary Payton II GS 14.0 5.7 2.5
10 Keldon Johnson SA 13.6 4.2 2.1
11 Devin Vassell SA 12.6 3.7 2.8
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.4 5.1 1.7
13 Draymond Green GS 10.3 4.9 6.0
14 Pat Spencer GS 9.1 2.6 3.4
15 Harrison Barnes SA 8.9 2.9 1.6
16 LJ Cryer GS 7.2 1.8 1.4
17 Will Richard GS 6.6 2.3 1.2
18 Carter Bryant SA 5.7 3.4 1.2
19 Nate Williams GS 5.2 1.6 0.9
20 Seth Curry GS 4.7 1.2 1.2
21 Harrison Ingram SA 3.3 1.8 0.7
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.0 0.9 0.7
23 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.8 1.4 0.9
24 Malevy Leons GS 2.7 1.6 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 0.9 1.0
26 Omer Yurtseven GS 2.5 2.2 0.7
27 Mason Plumlee SA 1.8 2.4 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.5 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.