NBA games

DEN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
130–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN39292933130
UTAH28263627117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home UTAH
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 37 5 5
Cameron Johnson S 35 19 9 6
Christian Braun S 31 18 6 4
Nikola Jokic S 33 15 17 12
Jonas Valanciunas 13 13 6 0
Bruce Brown 27 11 3 1
Aaron Gordon S 28 6 2 2
Peyton Watson 9 6 3 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10 3 1 0
David Roddy 2 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 33 28 6 4
Kyle Filipowski S 31 25 12 3
Kennedy Chandler 32 16 5 6
Ace Bailey S 33 12 1 2
John Konchar 29 12 10 6
Cody Williams S 38 9 2 9
Oscar Tshiebwe S 21 8 7 0
Bez Mbeng 23 7 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
2 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
3 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
8 Christian Braun DEN
7%
9 Kennedy Chandler UTAH
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.8 13.0 12.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.6 5.0 7.8
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 23.5 4.3 3.7
4 Ace Bailey UTAH 20.8 5.0 3.2
5 Cody Williams UTAH 19.9 4.4 4.6
6 Peyton Watson DEN 18.1 5.2 3.7
7 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 17.7 7.7 4.6
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.4 3.1 6.3
9 Christian Braun DEN 15.2 4.8 2.5
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.0 5.5 2.6
11 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 14.6 3.1 6.1
12 Cameron Johnson DEN 14.5 4.0 2.4
13 Elijah Harkless UTAH 12.2 3.2 4.2
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.0 3.1 2.2
15 Bruce Brown DEN 9.4 3.4 1.7
16 John Konchar UTAH 8.6 5.9 2.4
17 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.5 2.2 1.6
18 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 8.2 6.5 1.3
19 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.6 3.6 3.6
20 KJ Simpson DEN 6.4 2.5 2.7
21 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 5.1 3.7 1.0
22 Julian Strawther DEN 4.8 2.0 1.0
23 Kevin Love UTAH 4.6 4.7 1.4
24 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.2 1.7 0.8
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.6 0.9
26 Tyus Jones DEN 3.5 1.6 1.5
27 David Roddy DEN 2.6 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.