NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
120–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL34312134120
MEM22323028112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton 25 35 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 27 22 14 1
Cooper Flagg S 33 13 6 7
Max Christie S 25 13 0 0
P.J. Washington S 28 12 10 1
Brandon Williams 28 12 8 5
Marvin Bagley III 19 6 9 0
Naji Marshall S 23 5 6 3
Caleb Martin 15 2 3 1
Ryan Nembhard 13 0 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 32 23 2 2
GG Jackson S 31 20 4 3
Javon Small S 28 19 2 9
Taylor Hendricks 24 17 10 2
Rayan Rupert S 38 13 7 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 27 9 8 2
Jahmai Mashack 31 8 4 6
Tyler Burton 29 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes dunk (Naji Marshall assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
16%
2 Jaylen Wells MEM
13%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Max Christie DAL
10%
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
9%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
10 Khris Middleton DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
19%
Layup
52%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 27.1 8.2 5.2
2 GG Jackson MEM 19.3 6.8 2.6
3 Naji Marshall DAL 17.7 4.0 4.2
4 Brandon Williams DAL 17.0 3.8 4.7
5 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.2 3.1 2.2
6 P.J. Washington DAL 13.6 5.9 2.2
7 Cedric Coward MEM 13.3 5.9 3.2
8 Khris Middleton DAL 13.2 4.1 3.9
9 Javon Small MEM 13.1 4.4 4.8
10 Marvin Bagley III DAL 12.0 8.3 1.7
11 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.0 4.7 1.9
12 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 11.9 4.4 2.2
13 Max Christie DAL 11.5 3.8 1.8
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.7 7.8 1.5
15 Cam Spencer MEM 10.5 3.0 4.3
16 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.3 2.5 6.5
17 Rayan Rupert MEM 10.0 4.7 1.4
18 Jahmai Mashack MEM 8.0 3.4 1.6
19 Caleb Martin DAL 5.4 2.5 0.8
20 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.0 1.7 3.4
21 Dwight Powell DAL 4.0 3.6 0.7
22 AJ Johnson DAL 3.0 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.