NBA games

MIL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL20243435113
HOU27273134119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home HOU
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ousmane Dieng S 45 36 7 10
Cormac Ryan 38 25 2 4
Pete Nance S 40 23 3 0
AJ Green S 46 15 8 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 23 8 5 3
Jericho Sims S 36 6 20 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 7 0 0 0
Alex Antetokounmpo 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard S 37 27 4 6
Alperen Sengun S 29 25 9 4
Kevin Durant S 39 19 5 9
Amen Thompson S 40 18 8 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 12 7 4
Josh Okogie 13 8 1 1
Tari Eason 24 5 2 0
Aaron Holiday 13 3 1 0
Clint Capela 8 2 5 0
Jae'Sean Tate 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
17%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
12%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
6 Jericho Sims MIL
9%
7 Tari Eason HOU
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
10 Ousmane Dieng MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
24%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.4 4.8 6.4
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.1 8.7 6.7
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.1 8.7 5.5
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 18.1 6.9 2.7
5 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.9 4.2 5.1
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.9 3.5 3.0
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.7 5.3 1.8
8 Ousmane Dieng MIL 12.2 4.3 3.5
9 Tari Eason HOU 10.5 6.7 1.6
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 2.0 1.4
11 Myles Turner MIL 9.3 4.2 1.5
12 AJ Green MIL 8.9 3.1 1.8
13 Pete Nance MIL 6.7 3.7 1.7
14 Jericho Sims MIL 6.5 5.5 1.5
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.5 1.4
16 Clint Capela HOU 5.0 5.3 1.1
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.5 2.2 1.0
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.5 1.4
19 JD Davison HOU 4.0 1.9 1.3
20 Cormac Ryan MIL 4.0 0.9 0.5
21 Josh Okogie HOU 3.7 1.8 1.2
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 1.5 0.6
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.2 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.