NBA games

IND @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
145–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND39443428145
CHI33332634126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHI
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 22 25 4 5
Ethan Thompson S 31 24 2 5
Kobe Brown S 28 17 8 6
Jay Huff S 17 17 3 3
Ben Sheppard 22 13 2 5
Taelon Peter 27 10 3 0
Kam Jones 25 9 1 7
Quenton Jackson S 17 8 3 6
Jalen Slawson 24 8 8 5
Micah Potter 17 8 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Guerschon Yabusele S 25 20 6 1
Collin Sexton S 26 18 3 4
Matas Buzelis S 29 17 9 6
Rob Dillingham 29 15 2 3
Tre Jones S 25 15 2 1
Isaac Okoro S 26 14 1 2
Leonard Miller 22 11 6 0
Mac McClung 11 8 2 0
Lachlan Olbrich 17 8 8 1
Patrick Williams 13 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 1-foot layup (Jay Huff assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
15%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 Jarace Walker IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
9 Ethan Thompson IND
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
24%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.7 6.3 3.7
2 Collin Sexton CHI 20.9 3.0 3.6
3 Tre Jones CHI 19.8 4.8 5.8
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.8 7.3 2.0
5 Aaron Nesmith IND 17.7 3.4 2.1
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.3 3.2 8.9
7 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.1 3.1 2.8
8 Jarace Walker IND 15.8 5.8 3.5
9 Leonard Miller CHI 13.6 6.4 1.9
10 Rob Dillingham CHI 11.6 2.7 3.1
11 Obi Toppin IND 11.2 3.6 2.6
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.1 3.1 1.7
13 Kobe Brown IND 9.7 3.6 2.1
14 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.5 4.3 1.6
15 T.J. McConnell IND 9.2 3.0 6.0
16 Jay Huff IND 8.9 3.7 1.4
17 Taelon Peter IND 8.0 2.4 1.8
18 Micah Potter IND 7.7 3.5 1.0
19 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 2.8 1.4
20 Patrick Williams CHI 6.6 2.8 1.2
21 Quenton Jackson IND 6.6 2.1 3.0
22 Ethan Thompson IND 5.7 2.0 1.2
23 Kam Jones IND 5.6 1.8 3.5
24 Mac McClung CHI 5.5 1.8 0.8
25 Jalen Slawson IND 5.3 4.0 1.8
26 Yuki Kawamura CHI 3.0 1.3 2.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.