NBA games

SAC @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
123–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27342933123
TOR22342534115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home TOR
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 28 1 4
Precious Achiuwa S 38 28 19 1
Malik Monk 29 18 3 5
Devin Carter S 23 13 5 3
Daeqwon Plowden 22 11 2 2
Nique Clifford S 32 9 2 3
Maxime Raynaud S 23 6 8 0
Killian Hayes 14 5 2 3
Doug McDermott 9 3 0 0
Dylan Cardwell 14 2 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 20 5 6
Collin Murray-Boyles 18 20 4 2
Jakob Poeltl S 28 18 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 33 17 6 3
Jamal Shead S 37 16 1 7
Scottie Barnes S 35 14 5 10
Ja'Kobe Walter S 32 8 4 3
A.J. Lawson 16 2 1 1
Alijah Martin 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes running layup (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
2 Precious Achiuwa SAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
7 Malik Monk SAC
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
10 Daeqwon Plowden SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 4.9 4.1
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.5 3.9 5.8
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.4 7.5 9.2
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC 18.3 7.7 2.1
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC 14.9 8.8 1.5
6 Malik Monk SAC 14.5 2.5 4.8
7 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 13.3 3.3 1.5
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 7.8 2.1
9 Keegan Murray SAC 12.6 4.4 1.8
10 Devin Carter SAC 12.3 3.9 3.0
11 Nique Clifford SAC 12.1 4.7 3.7
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.0 4.8 2.0
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 11.1 3.2 1.8
14 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.9 4.9 1.3
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.2 1.8 6.8
16 Killian Hayes SAC 6.9 2.9 3.6
17 Doug McDermott SAC 6.9 1.8 1.1
18 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.6 1.2
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 5.2 6.3 1.6
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.8 2.1 0.8
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.5 3.1 0.6
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.9 2.3 1.1
23 Markelle Fultz TOR 2.7 1.0 1.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.1 0.8
25 Alijah Martin TOR 2.5 1.1 0.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.2 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.