NBA games

ATL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
130–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25473028130
ORL28262225101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home ORL
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 32 4 1
Jalen Johnson S 34 18 14 8
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 16 7 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 15 13 4
Jonathan Kuminga 19 12 0 1
CJ McCollum S 34 9 1 3
Caleb Houstan 3 9 3 0
Jock Landale 15 8 1 1
Gabe Vincent 12 5 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher 13 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Cain 27 17 1 0
Desmond Bane S 30 14 2 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 25 14 6 0
Franz Wagner S 20 12 1 2
Paolo Banchero S 26 11 8 3
Tristan da Silva 23 9 2 6
Jalen Suggs S 26 7 5 9
Jase Richardson 8 4 2 1
Goga Bitadze 15 4 5 1
Jett Howard 11 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Onyeka Okongwu · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
3 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
10 Jock Landale ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.3 6.9 6.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.2 8.7 8.7
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.1 4.0 4.5
4 CJ McCollum ATL 22.1 3.4 5.3
5 Desmond Bane ORL 19.4 4.3 4.3
6 Franz Wagner ORL 18.4 4.7 3.2
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.5 4.5 5.3
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.5 7.0 4.9
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.8 6.9 1.9
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.3 6.5 2.7
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.2 3.6 1.7
12 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 10.3 5.6 2.2
13 Jamal Cain ORL 8.6 3.6 1.4
14 Jevon Carter ORL 8.4 2.5 1.9
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.2 3.7 0.9
16 Jock Landale ATL 7.4 4.0 1.8
17 Jett Howard ORL 6.4 2.0 1.0
18 Corey Kispert ATL 5.9 1.9 1.3
19 Asa Newell ATL 5.2 2.3 0.8
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.9 3.2 1.1
21 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.7 1.5 1.3
22 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.5 2.7 0.7
23 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 2.9 1.4
24 Buddy Hield ATL 4.2 1.6 1.1
25 Noah Penda ORL 3.4 1.8 1.3
26 Jase Richardson ORL 2.9 1.1 1.0
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.4 0.7 0.5
28 Caleb Houstan ATL 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.