NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
147–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS53273235147
MIA33244527129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 43 3 7
Jayson Tatum S 37 25 18 11
Sam Hauser S 29 23 3 0
Neemias Queta S 33 16 11 3
Payton Pritchard 31 14 3 4
Luka Garza 15 12 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 18 8 2 4
Derrick White S 34 6 5 4
Jordan Walsh 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 38 29 10 2
Davion Mitchell S 40 21 2 7
Pelle Larsson S 38 18 3 6
Tyler Herro S 40 18 3 7
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 17 10 2
Andrew Wiggins S 32 13 4 2
Kel'el Ware 13 8 2 0
Simone Fontecchio 5 5 2 0
Dru Smith 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Pelle Larsson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Pelle Larsson MIA
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Luka Garza BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
22%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.3 6.6 7.0
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 25.7 10.0 3.8
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.9 8.8 4.5
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.2 4.8 4.3
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.1 4.1 4.2
6 Pelle Larsson MIA 16.7 4.2 3.6
7 Derrick White BOS 16.3 5.0 4.5
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.1 3.9 5.3
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 11.7 4.8 2.2
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.8 3.0 4.8
11 Neemias Queta BOS 10.6 8.2 2.1
12 Luka Garza BOS 9.4 4.1 1.3
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.3 6.6 1.4
14 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.9 4.6 2.3
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.3 2.4 1.1
16 Sam Hauser BOS 7.2 3.4 1.3
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.5 2.6 2.2
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.6 3.6 1.0
19 Dru Smith MIA 5.1 2.2 2.0
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.3 2.8 0.7
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 4.2 1.5 0.7
22 Myron Gardner MIA 3.9 2.7 0.9
23 Charles Bassey BOS 3.5 4.5 0.5
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.3 1.3 0.4
25 Amari Williams BOS 2.6 2.2 0.7
26 John Tonje BOS 2.2 1.2 0.5
27 Max Shulga BOS 2.2 1.1 0.6
28 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.1 1.1 0.4
29 Trevor Keels MIA 1.9 0.5 0.5
30 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.