NBA games

PHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
153–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI35384733153
WSH29423228131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home WSH
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 30 39 5 6
Tyrese Maxey S 34 28 2 9
VJ Edgecombe S 33 23 3 10
Adem Bona S 21 13 4 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. 21 12 4 1
Quentin Grimes 23 12 4 1
Andre Drummond 24 6 9 4
Dominick Barlow S 22 6 3 2
Justin Edwards 9 5 1 1
Cameron Payne 14 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Gill 35 21 6 6
Will Riley S 32 18 1 3
Tristan Vukcevic S 11 17 2 2
Justin Champagnie 21 17 7 0
Bub Carrington S 31 13 1 7
Bilal Coulibaly S 19 12 2 0
Sharife Cooper 23 11 4 3
Tre Johnson S 24 8 4 4
Jamir Watkins 19 7 5 2
Jaden Hardy 25 7 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Paul George makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
4 Will Riley WSH
8%
5 Paul George PHI
8%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
8 Tristan Vukcevic WSH
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
33%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.6 5.1 7.1
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI 22.4 6.2 5.3
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 21.0 4.6 4.5
4 Paul George PHI 19.0 5.3 4.5
5 Will Riley WSH 17.7 3.8 3.6
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.2 5.9 2.6
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.9 5.0 3.5
8 Bub Carrington WSH 14.0 2.9 4.9
9 Jaden Hardy WSH 13.9 2.4 1.6
10 Tre Johnson WSH 12.6 3.5 1.9
11 Justin Edwards PHI 12.1 2.9 2.3
12 Alex Sarr WSH 11.8 6.4 2.4
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.5 4.6 1.7
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 11.1 4.0 1.3
15 Cameron Payne PHI 10.1 2.6 3.0
16 Kyshawn George WSH 10.0 2.5 1.7
17 Anthony Gill WSH 9.4 4.2 1.9
18 Trendon Watford PHI 8.8 4.3 2.6
19 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.7 4.3 2.3
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 8.4 3.1 3.5
21 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.0 5.4 1.9
22 Jabari Walker PHI 7.3 3.3 0.9
23 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.1 2.5 1.0
24 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 5.9 0.9
25 Andre Drummond PHI 5.7 6.3 1.7
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.