NBA games

POR @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
114–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR34282923114
LAC31152830104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAC
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 32 30 6 2
Deni Avdija S 34 28 11 8
Toumani Camara S 33 17 7 0
Scoot Henderson S 29 15 3 2
Kris Murray 31 7 7 6
Robert Williams III 18 6 7 1
Matisse Thybulle 24 5 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 29 4 4 1
Caleb Love 1 2 0 0
Sidy Cissoko 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 23 8 3
Darius Garland S 37 20 2 4
Brook Lopez S 36 18 7 2
John Collins S 31 17 6 1
Jordan Miller 25 16 2 3
Bennedict Mathurin 22 4 0 0
Kris Dunn 20 3 2 2
Kobe Sanders 1 2 0 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 1 3 2
Nicolas Batum 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Clingan POR
12%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 John Collins LAC
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
29%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.9 6.0 4.1
2 Darius Garland LAC 23.7 2.9 7.2
3 Deni Avdija POR 23.2 7.0 7.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 20.6 5.9 2.4
5 Jerami Grant POR 17.1 3.6 2.1
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.1 3.4 3.9
7 Donovan Clingan POR 14.6 10.8 2.3
8 Toumani Camara POR 14.4 4.0 2.4
9 Jrue Holiday POR 14.3 4.4 5.7
10 John Collins LAC 11.8 5.1 1.5
11 Jordan Miller LAC 11.3 4.0 2.9
12 Brook Lopez LAC 10.3 5.3 1.8
13 Caleb Love POR 10.3 2.2 3.0
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.8 4.4 1.8
15 Kris Dunn LAC 7.4 3.3 3.1
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 2.0 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.6 2.7 1.4
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.6 7.8 0.8
19 Kris Murray POR 6.1 2.7 1.7
20 Blake Wesley POR 5.1 1.5 1.7
21 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.5 2.3 1.8
22 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.4 1.5 1.3
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 2.4 0.8
24 Jayson Kent POR 3.9 1.8 0.6
25 Yang Hansen POR 3.0 1.8 0.5
26 TyTy Washington Jr. LAC 2.4 0.8 1.3
27 Cam Christie LAC 2.0 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.