NBA games

CLE @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
113–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34193030113
LAL32334517127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 19 18 4 2
James Harden S 28 17 0 3
Thomas Bryant 25 14 6 0
Max Strus S 23 11 3 1
Tyrese Proctor 12 10 2 4
Donovan Mitchell S 24 10 3 6
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 22 9 3 1
Dennis Schroder 19 9 3 3
Keon Ellis 19 7 2 0
Evan Mobley S 22 6 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 42 5 12
Austin Reaves S 37 19 6 4
Deandre Ayton S 28 18 9 1
Jake LaRavia S 38 14 7 0
Rui Hachimura 19 14 1 0
LeBron James S 31 14 5 6
Jaxson Hayes 19 4 3 1
Luke Kennard 23 2 1 2
Drew Timme 1 0 0 0
Dalton Knecht 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 5-foot two point shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
8 James Harden CLE
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
86%
Jumper
2%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 27.5 6.9 8.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 4.0 5.7
3 Austin Reaves LAL 24.2 4.4 6.6
4 James Harden CLE 22.8 5.7 8.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 22.7 10.3 3.7
6 LeBron James LAL 20.7 7.8 7.5
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.3 9.1 1.7
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.4 8.7 1.3
9 Max Strus CLE 11.1 5.8 1.9
10 Keon Ellis CLE 10.7 3.0 1.7
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.1 3.1 1.1
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.3 5.3 0.9
13 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.8 4.2 0.9
14 Luke Kennard LAL 6.7 2.2 1.4
15 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.4 2.2 3.6
16 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.5 3.1 1.4
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.2 2.6 3.3
18 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.4 1.3
19 Drew Timme LAL 4.0 1.6 0.8
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.0 1.3 1.2
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.8 3.1 0.9
22 Kobe Bufkin LAL 3.6 1.4 0.7
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.1 1.6 0.6
24 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.0 1.5 0.7
25 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.9 1.9 0.6
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.8 2.2 0.5
27 Adou Thiero LAL 1.8 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.