NBA games

NY @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
94–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2129222294
HOU37262919111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home HOU
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 22 8 3
Josh Hart S 29 13 5 2
Jalen Brunson S 37 12 6 8
Jose Alvarado 12 12 1 2
Jordan Clarkson 19 10 2 0
OG Anunoby S 38 8 6 0
Mikal Bridges S 34 7 3 4
Mitchell Robinson 16 5 5 0
Miles McBride 13 3 1 2
Jeremy Sochan 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 27 6 8
Reed Sheppard 28 20 5 2
Amen Thompson S 39 17 4 8
Tari Eason S 30 17 8 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 39 15 6 2
Alperen Sengun S 30 13 5 10
Jae'Sean Tate 11 2 1 0
Jeff Green 2 0 1 0
Clint Capela 12 0 2 1
Aaron Holiday 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
20%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.0 3.5 7.9
2 Kevin Durant HOU 24.6 4.7 5.9
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.4 11.3 3.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.1 8.4 6.0
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.7 8.9 5.1
6 OG Anunoby NY 18.0 4.1 2.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.0 6.9 2.6
8 Josh Hart NY 15.6 7.5 3.5
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.4 3.7 4.9
10 Miles McBride NY 12.2 2.8 3.4
11 Mikal Bridges NY 10.9 3.5 2.9
12 Tari Eason HOU 9.4 6.3 1.5
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.0 2.5 1.7
14 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.4 9.0 1.0
15 Jose Alvarado NY 5.4 1.6 3.7
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.4 1.3
17 Mohamed Diawara NY 5.1 1.9 1.1
18 Clint Capela HOU 4.9 5.7 1.1
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 3.9 2.3 1.3
20 JD Davison HOU 3.6 1.8 1.3
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 1.2 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.4 1.2 0.7
23 Josh Okogie HOU 3.3 1.6 1.0
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.6 0.7 1.4
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 0.8 0.4
26 Jeremy Sochan NY 1.8 1.4 0.4
27 Dillon Jones NY 1.4 1.1 0.4
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.3 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.