NBA games

TOR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
116–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR20342735116
DET26334127127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DET
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 31 24 6 2
Brandon Ingram S 31 22 1 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 16 6 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 24 14 10 0
Jakob Poeltl S 23 13 4 1
A.J. Lawson 19 13 3 0
Jamal Shead 29 6 0 12
Scottie Barnes S 28 5 1 12
Ja'Kobe Walter S 27 3 4 4
Gradey Dick 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Duren S 35 31 9 3
Daniss Jenkins S 37 21 5 5
Duncan Robinson S 29 19 1 2
Tobias Harris S 33 12 5 6
Caris LeVert 19 12 1 2
Paul Reed 13 10 2 5
Kevin Huerter 22 8 2 3
Marcus Sasser 8 8 0 1
Ausar Thompson S 26 5 7 5
Ronald Holland II 13 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
10%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Tobias Harris DET
9%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
6 Paul Reed DET
7%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
8 Daniss Jenkins DET
7%
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
10 Kevin Huerter DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
9%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 23.1 11.0 2.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.0 4.9 3.5
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.1 5.0 3.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.3 7.0 7.3
5 Daniss Jenkins DET 17.8 4.1 6.4
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 5.7 3.7
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.4 8.1 2.0
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 3.1 2.4
9 Kevin Huerter DET 11.6 3.4 2.5
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.4 4.7 1.6
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.3 5.2 2.5
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.2 2.9 1.3
13 Caris LeVert DET 8.7 3.2 2.9
14 Paul Reed DET 8.5 5.2 1.3
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.8 4.0 1.1
16 Marcus Sasser DET 7.2 1.8 2.5
17 Jamal Shead TOR 6.7 1.8 5.4
18 Javonte Green DET 6.6 2.5 1.1
19 Ronald Holland II DET 6.4 3.0 1.2
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 1.6 1.0
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.0 1.7 0.6
22 Tolu Smith DET 3.3 3.2 0.8
23 Markelle Fultz TOR 2.4 0.9 1.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.