NBA games

PHX @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX21353817111
ORL28422421115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ORL
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 34 3 7
Royce O'Neale 31 14 9 4
Rasheer Fleming 16 11 4 0
Collin Gillespie S 27 11 2 3
Grayson Allen 32 10 2 1
Dillon Brooks S 22 9 5 0
Jordan Goodwin 29 9 5 2
Jalen Green S 20 8 1 2
Oso Ighodaro S 25 5 10 5
Khaman Maluach 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 21 6 5
Jalen Suggs S 38 20 8 7
Paolo Banchero S 37 19 9 8
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 15 12 0
Jamal Cain 20 12 3 1
Jett Howard 14 12 2 0
Tristan da Silva S 25 9 3 0
Moritz Wagner 4 4 1 1
Goga Bitadze 14 3 2 1
Jevon Carter 22 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 21-foot jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
14%
2 Jalen Green PHX
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
5 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
49%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.5 4.1 5.8
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.9 6.8 5.9
3 Jalen Green PHX 23.5 5.0 4.3
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.7 4.5 2.6
5 Desmond Bane ORL 19.4 4.0 4.5
6 Grayson Allen PHX 18.6 3.0 5.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.6 4.1 5.1
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.1 3.9 2.0
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.5 6.7 2.1
10 Oso Ighodaro PHX 11.5 6.6 3.6
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.8 3.7 4.7
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 4.2 2.2
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.0 5.8 2.3
14 Jevon Carter ORL 8.4 2.5 1.9
15 Jamal Cain ORL 7.8 3.0 1.3
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.3 3.9 0.9
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.4 3.9 1.3
18 Jett Howard ORL 6.3 2.1 1.0
19 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.1 4.4 0.6
20 Moritz Wagner ORL 4.7 3.2 0.7
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.4 3.0 1.6
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.0 2.0 1.4
23 Koby Brea PHX 3.8 1.1 1.1
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.4 1.9 1.1
25 Jase Richardson ORL 3.4 1.3 1.1
26 CJ Huntley PHX 2.9 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.