NBA games

WSH @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
101–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH26183324101
LAL25402629120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley S 36 20 2 2
Justin Champagnie S 27 18 4 2
Tristan Vukcevic S 20 14 3 1
Jaden Hardy 22 11 5 0
Anthony Gill 36 11 5 1
Tre Johnson S 23 11 6 2
Jamir Watkins 27 8 5 5
Bub Carrington S 28 5 1 7
Sharife Cooper 20 3 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 21 10 12
Jaxson Hayes 20 19 7 0
Austin Reaves S 27 19 3 9
Luke Kennard 23 19 2 1
Rui Hachimura S 26 14 6 0
Deandre Ayton S 22 12 7 1
Bronny James 26 6 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 23 4 8 1
Jake LaRavia S 28 4 3 2
Kobe Bufkin 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"LeBron James makes driving layup (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
17%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
9 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
10 Tre Johnson WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
86%
Jumper
2%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 38.5 7.2 8.0
2 Austin Reaves LAL 25.2 4.7 6.6
3 LeBron James LAL 20.9 7.9 7.1
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.3 4.8 3.4
5 Will Riley WSH 15.3 3.8 3.1
6 Bub Carrington WSH 14.0 3.1 4.5
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.5 9.5 1.3
8 Jaden Hardy WSH 12.3 2.1 1.7
9 Tre Johnson WSH 11.6 3.0 1.8
10 Alex Sarr WSH 11.4 6.0 2.3
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.3 3.1 1.2
12 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.9 3.7 1.3
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.6 4.3 1.5
14 Kyshawn George WSH 9.6 2.3 1.6
15 Anthony Gill WSH 8.1 3.8 1.8
16 Jamir Watkins WSH 8.0 3.7 1.9
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.9 5.7 1.1
18 Sharife Cooper WSH 7.7 2.6 3.0
19 Luke Kennard LAL 6.7 2.3 1.6
20 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.8 3.5 1.5
21 Bronny James LAL 4.5 1.6 1.3
22 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.6 2.6 0.9
23 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 2.4 0.5
24 Drew Timme LAL 3.1 1.2 0.6
25 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.9 1.1 0.5
26 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.