NBA games

DET @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET241931279110
OKC3122262213114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home OKC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul Reed S 34 21 10 2
Javonte Green S 30 19 5 1
Kevin Huerter S 38 17 6 6
Daniss Jenkins S 36 15 4 6
Marcus Sasser 18 12 1 4
Caris LeVert 26 10 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 26 8 7 5
Tolu Smith 19 4 7 3
Ronald Holland II 24 4 2 1
Chaz Lanier 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 41 47 5 3
Ajay Mitchell S 36 14 2 3
Chet Holmgren S 30 13 9 1
Aaron Wiggins 17 10 2 1
Cason Wallace S 27 9 0 1
Jared McCain 14 7 2 0
Isaiah Joe 14 6 1 0
Alex Caruso 27 3 1 4
Jaylin Williams 32 3 13 2
Luguentz Dort S 22 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
43%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
17%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
14%
4 Daniss Jenkins DET
14%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 Paul Reed DET
0%
7 Javonte Green DET
0%
8 Kevin Huerter DET
0%
9 Tolu Smith DET
0%
10 Ronald Holland II DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
4%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 4.6 7.0
2 Daniss Jenkins DET 17.0 4.0 6.3
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.3 7.9 1.7
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.5 3.8 3.3
5 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 4.9 2.6
6 Kevin Huerter DET 9.6 3.0 2.2
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 2.7 1.2
8 Jared McCain OKC 8.0 2.0 1.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.1 1.2
10 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.8 5.0 1.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.6 3.2 2.0
12 Paul Reed DET 7.5 4.1 1.1
13 Caris LeVert DET 7.3 3.0 3.0
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.8 1.8 2.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.6 3.1 1.1
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 3.1 1.6
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.8 2.3 1.0
18 Javonte Green DET 5.8 2.2 1.0
19 Nikola Topic OKC 5.8 1.9 2.7
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 2.0 0.8
21 Tolu Smith DET 3.1 3.1 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.9 1.5 0.7
23 Branden Carlson OKC 2.8 2.3 0.6
24 Chaz Lanier DET 2.8 1.0 0.6
25 Isaac Jones DET 2.3 1.3 0.3
26 Bobi Klintman DET 1.8 0.8 0.4
27 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.7 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.