NBA games

CLE @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
122113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31323128122
UTAH29243624113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home UTAH
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 30 34 17 3
Donovan Mitchell S 36 34 2 5
James Harden S 39 13 6 14
Keon Ellis S 32 13 2 1
Sam Merrill S 28 9 4 3
Tyrese Proctor 12 8 2 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 9 4 3 0
Dennis Schroder 21 3 4 3
Craig Porter Jr. 15 2 2 3
Thomas Bryant 18 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cody Williams S 37 26 6 4
Kyle Filipowski S 24 20 10 5
Ace Bailey S 35 19 2 5
Brice Sensabaugh S 26 18 4 5
Kennedy Chandler S 40 12 4 5
Oscar Tshiebwe 19 7 7 1
John Konchar 30 6 4 2
Bez Mbeng 29 5 3 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes 3-foot layup (Kyle Filipowski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cody Williams UTAH
13%
2 Isaiah Collier UTAH
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
10%
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
9%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
9%
8 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
9 James Harden CLE
7%
10 Elijah Harkless UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.6 5.0 5.9
2 James Harden CLE 24.8 5.8 8.6
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 23.5 4.1 3.6
4 Evan Mobley CLE 22.9 11.7 3.7
5 Cody Williams UTAH 20.1 4.2 4.6
6 Ace Bailey UTAH 19.9 5.5 3.1
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.3 3.1 6.1
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 17.2 7.9 4.5
9 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 14.8 3.1 6.0
10 Sam Merrill CLE 13.2 4.2 2.8
11 Keon Ellis CLE 12.3 3.4 1.8
12 Elijah Harkless UTAH 12.3 3.3 4.2
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.9 2.3 1.6
14 Thomas Bryant CLE 8.3 4.4 0.8
15 John Konchar UTAH 8.0 5.8 2.4
16 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.6 3.7 3.3
17 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 7.4 5.8 1.4
18 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.6 2.4 3.5
19 Kevin Love UTAH 4.5 4.7 1.4
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.4 2.5 3.0
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.3 1.5 1.4
22 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.9 2.6 0.9
23 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.2 2.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.