NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
124–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN35213830124
DAL2323252394

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 31 24 3 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 18 15 12
Anthony Edwards 23 17 2 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 15 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 28 14 10 1
Bones Hyland 23 12 4 3
Naz Reid 25 12 5 0
Joan Beringer 5 6 2 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 5 4 2 1
Jaylen Clark 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 24 21 8 2
Brandon Williams 28 15 6 7
Cooper Flagg S 31 12 4 1
Khris Middleton S 23 9 6 1
Dwight Powell 24 9 8 2
John Poulakidas 18 8 3 0
Ryan Nembhard S 20 8 3 5
Klay Thompson 22 5 2 2
Tyler Smith 18 4 8 0
Max Christie S 28 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Ayo Dosunmu MIN
9%
7 Dwight Powell DAL
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
7%
9 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.9 4.3 4.7
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.8 7.2 6.6
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.9 6.3 4.9
4 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 16.6 4.9 3.6
5 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.8 9.7 1.6
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.0 12.1 1.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 12.9 6.0 1.8
8 Bones Hyland MIN 12.6 2.0 3.1
9 Klay Thompson DAL 11.5 2.0 1.6
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.4 3.9 2.6
11 Brandon Williams DAL 11.1 3.7 3.3
12 Max Christie DAL 10.6 2.8 1.7
13 Marvin Bagley III DAL 9.1 5.6 1.7
14 Khris Middleton DAL 8.7 2.6 1.6
15 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.6 2.5 5.2
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.6 4.2 2.6
17 Mike Conley MIN 4.4 2.3 2.9
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.3 1.8 0.8
19 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 3.6 0.9
20 AJ Johnson DAL 3.9 1.7 1.2
21 John Poulakidas DAL 3.9 1.4 0.5
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.8 1.5 1.0
23 Julian Phillips MIN 3.5 1.4 0.7
24 Joan Beringer MIN 3.1 2.5 0.6
25 Tyler Smith DAL 3.0 1.3 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.5 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.