NBA games

CHI @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
114–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI28193532114
SA29353827129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SA
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 26 23 2 3
Leonard Miller 25 21 6 4
Collin Sexton 27 20 3 3
Guerschon Yabusele S 30 15 5 2
Matas Buzelis S 28 12 6 2
Josh Giddey S 33 9 7 10
Rob Dillingham 20 6 1 1
Isaac Okoro S 25 6 3 0
Patrick Williams 21 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 41 16 4
Stephon Castle S 35 21 8 10
Keldon Johnson 26 15 2 1
Julian Champagnie S 28 13 8 3
Dylan Harper 24 13 6 3
Luke Kornet 19 10 5 1
De'Aaron Fox S 23 7 2 6
Devin Vassell S 31 6 7 3
Harrison Barnes 17 3 1 0
Carter Bryant 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Tre Jones makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
13%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Leonard Miller CHI
7%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.7 11.7 4.2
2 Stephon Castle SA 21.6 6.5 9.2
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 20.6 6.8 1.9
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 4.4 6.9
5 Collin Sexton CHI 19.9 2.9 3.4
6 Tre Jones CHI 18.9 4.7 5.7
7 Josh Giddey CHI 18.8 7.9 10.0
8 Anfernee Simons CHI 15.0 2.9 2.6
9 Dylan Harper SA 14.4 4.1 5.0
10 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 3.6 3.0
11 Keldon Johnson SA 12.9 4.6 2.1
12 Leonard Miller CHI 12.8 6.4 1.5
13 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.4 2.5 3.1
14 Julian Champagnie SA 10.3 4.8 1.6
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 3.0 1.6
16 Harrison Barnes SA 9.1 3.0 1.7
17 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 8.7 4.4 1.5
18 Patrick Williams CHI 6.5 2.5 1.2
19 Carter Bryant SA 6.2 3.6 1.3
20 Luke Kornet SA 5.7 5.6 1.5
21 Lindy Waters III SA 4.0 1.4 1.0
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.8 1.9 1.2
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.4 1.4 1.3
24 Yuki Kawamura CHI 2.5 1.1 2.3
25 Mason Plumlee SA 2.3 2.9 0.8
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.