NBA games

PHX @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
131–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34312640131
MEM31302816105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MEM
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 26 36 2 5
Jalen Green S 24 21 6 1
Oso Ighodaro S 35 11 5 8
Collin Gillespie S 32 11 5 10
Rasheer Fleming 24 11 1 1
Royce O'Neale S 24 9 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 28 9 4 8
Jamaree Bouyea 6 8 1 0
Khaman Maluach 13 6 11 0
Ryan Dunn 22 6 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Burton 32 17 4 1
Cam Spencer S 18 16 3 5
GG Jackson S 17 14 4 2
Jahmai Mashack S 37 14 3 2
DeJon Jarreau 33 12 8 4
Walter Clayton Jr. 30 11 3 7
Adama Bal 31 9 3 2
Cedric Coward S 24 7 3 3
Taylor Hendricks S 18 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Spencer · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Cam Spencer makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jahmai Mashack assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Jalen Green PHX
13%
3 GG Jackson MEM
12%
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
11%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
26%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.7 4.6 6.6
2 Jalen Green PHX 25.0 5.0 5.0
3 GG Jackson MEM 18.1 4.8 2.1
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 14.4 4.4 1.6
5 Cedric Coward MEM 13.2 4.9 2.7
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX 12.1 7.4 3.4
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.3 4.1 5.1
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.2 2.6 1.4
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM 10.9 5.0 1.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 4.6 2.4
11 Tyler Burton MEM 10.3 4.0 1.5
12 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.0 2.6 4.7
13 Cam Spencer MEM 9.3 2.2 4.9
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.9 5.8 1.9
15 DeJon Jarreau MEM 8.7 4.3 3.5
16 Jahmai Mashack MEM 8.6 3.3 1.9
17 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.1 4.9 1.0
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.8 4.4 1.5
19 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.7 3.9 0.8
20 Koby Brea PHX 4.0 1.4 1.1
21 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.9 2.3 1.5
22 Taj Gibson MEM 3.7 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.