NBA games

BOS @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
102–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30242226102
ATL29253622112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ATL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 29 10 9
Luka Garza S 28 20 9 1
Payton Pritchard 26 16 2 0
Jordan Walsh S 31 8 4 1
Sam Hauser 21 7 3 0
Derrick White S 36 7 5 4
Hugo Gonzalez 13 5 4 0
Amari Williams 13 4 7 1
Baylor Scheierman S 26 3 2 2
Charles Bassey 6 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 36 20 12 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 20 10 3
Dyson Daniels S 38 18 5 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 17 4 6
CJ McCollum S 30 14 1 6
Jonathan Kuminga 23 10 6 1
Zaccharie Risacher 16 9 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye 12 2 4 1
Gabe Vincent 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 15-foot turnaround jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
8%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
7%
10 Jordan Walsh BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.3 6.3 6.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.7 8.2 8.3
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.6 3.7 4.0
4 CJ McCollum ATL 21.0 3.6 4.4
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.8 4.0 4.9
6 Derrick White BOS 16.9 4.9 4.1
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.0 7.3 4.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.5 6.3 2.3
9 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 11.2 5.4 2.4
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.0 7.7 1.9
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.6 4.1 0.9
12 Luka Garza BOS 8.1 3.3 1.2
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.9 5.1 2.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.5 3.6 1.3
15 Corey Kispert ATL 6.0 2.0 1.3
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.9 3.4 0.7
17 Asa Newell ATL 4.9 2.2 0.7
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.8 2.9 0.9
19 Gabe Vincent ATL 4.6 1.5 1.3
20 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.8 2.9 0.6
21 Buddy Hield ATL 3.7 1.4 1.0
22 Charles Bassey BOS 3.1 4.3 0.5
23 Christian Koloko ATL 3.0 2.5 0.7
24 Amari Williams BOS 2.5 2.2 0.6
25 John Tonje BOS 2.3 1.3 0.4
26 Max Shulga BOS 2.3 1.2 0.6
27 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.0 0.6 0.4
28 Caleb Houstan ATL 1.5 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.