NBA games

PHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
109–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI34272622109
MIA38203328119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIA
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 34 26 7 3
Tyrese Maxey S 44 23 7 9
Paul George S 35 19 4 2
VJ Edgecombe S 30 13 1 5
Quentin Grimes 32 11 5 4
Kelly Oubre Jr. 31 11 11 3
Dominick Barlow S 20 4 4 0
Adem Bona 14 2 3 0
Justin Edwards 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 42 30 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 42 23 16 6
Pelle Larsson S 36 20 10 3
Andrew Wiggins S 36 14 8 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 14 6 5
Davion Mitchell S 30 9 4 5
Kel'el Ware 13 5 6 2
Simone Fontecchio 6 3 3 0
Dru Smith 3 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pelle Larsson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Pelle Larsson makes driving layup (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
8 Paul George PHI
9%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
10%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.2 8.0 5.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.0 4.9 6.7
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 26.8 10.2 4.0
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 22.8 6.7 5.2
5 Tyler Herro MIA 22.5 5.5 5.0
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 21.7 4.7 4.1
7 Paul George PHI 19.5 6.0 4.4
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.9 5.5 2.5
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 16.5 4.0 3.7
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.1 3.9 5.7
11 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.0 4.9 2.6
12 Justin Edwards PHI 12.0 3.0 2.3
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.7 3.4 5.2
14 Cameron Payne PHI 10.3 2.8 3.2
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.4 7.2 1.4
16 Trendon Watford PHI 8.8 4.4 2.6
17 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.6 5.6 1.9
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.0 2.5 1.3
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.4 3.0 2.4
20 Jabari Walker PHI 7.3 3.4 0.9
21 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.2 2.7 1.0
22 Adem Bona PHI 6.5 6.2 0.9
23 Andre Drummond PHI 6.3 6.5 1.9
24 Myron Gardner MIA 5.0 3.2 1.1
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.7 2.0 0.7
26 Dru Smith MIA 4.3 2.0 1.8
27 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.7 1.5 0.5
28 Trevor Keels MIA 2.5 0.7 0.6
29 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.9 1.1 0.6
30 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.