NBA games

GS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
93–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2825211993
DEN23234030116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DEN
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 23 3 2
Brandin Podziemski S 32 23 5 2
Gary Payton II 21 16 5 1
Draymond Green S 30 13 4 8
Gui Santos S 33 9 10 3
Pat Spencer 24 7 5 8
Malevy Leons 4 2 0 0
Seth Curry 7 0 1 0
Quinten Post 5 0 2 0
Omer Yurtseven 4 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 25 15 8
Jamal Murray S 34 20 6 7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 16 3 2
Bruce Brown 25 15 1 0
Christian Braun S 33 12 3 0
Peyton Watson S 22 10 6 5
Julian Strawther 18 7 2 2
Cameron Johnson S 19 6 1 3
DaRon Holmes II 2 5 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
11%
2 Gui Santos GS
10%
3 De'Anthony Melton GS
9%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
7 Kristaps Porzingis GS
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.7 12.4 11.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.3 4.4 7.0
3 Gui Santos GS 20.2 4.5 4.6
4 Peyton Watson DEN 19.4 4.9 3.2
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 18.1 5.7 5.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 18.1 4.9 2.9
7 Moses Moody GS 17.6 3.7 3.0
8 De'Anthony Melton GS 15.9 4.7 3.1
9 Christian Braun DEN 15.1 4.6 2.6
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.0 3.8 2.4
11 Gary Payton II GS 13.9 5.2 2.4
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 11.3 2.7 1.9
13 Draymond Green GS 11.0 5.1 6.1
14 Pat Spencer GS 10.3 2.7 3.5
15 Bruce Brown DEN 8.2 2.9 1.6
16 Quinten Post GS 8.2 4.4 1.3
17 LJ Cryer GS 8.0 2.2 1.3
18 Will Richard GS 7.5 2.7 1.4
19 Spencer Jones DEN 6.2 3.6 1.1
20 Nate Williams GS 5.2 1.4 0.8
21 Seth Curry GS 4.9 1.1 1.3
22 Julian Strawther DEN 4.2 1.6 0.9
23 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 3.5 2.8 0.6
24 Curtis Jones DEN 3.5 1.3 0.8
25 Malevy Leons GS 3.4 1.9 0.8
26 Omer Yurtseven GS 3.3 2.6 0.8
27 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.3 1.1 0.4
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.5 0.8 0.5
29 Tyus Jones DEN 2.2 0.8 0.9
30 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.7 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.