NBA games

NY @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
100–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY23292622100
OKC26273127111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home OKC
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 32 5 5
Mikal Bridges S 34 15 1 1
Josh Hart S 34 15 6 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 15 18 2
OG Anunoby S 33 10 0 3
Jose Alvarado 17 8 3 4
Mitchell Robinson 18 3 4 0
Jordan Clarkson 21 2 3 0
Mohamed Diawara 2 0 0 0
Miles McBride 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 30 3 4
Jalen Williams S 29 22 1 2
Chet Holmgren S 33 16 9 2
Luguentz Dort S 27 12 2 1
Ajay Mitchell 24 8 4 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 6 13 1
Alex Caruso 18 6 2 2
Cason Wallace 15 5 1 1
Isaiah Joe 10 3 1 0
Jaylin Williams 12 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
8%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
7%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
74%
Jumper
4%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.8 4.7 7.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.2 3.5 8.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.8 11.2 3.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.2 4.2 5.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.3 7.8 1.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.0 4.8 2.4
7 Josh Hart NY 15.4 7.8 3.6
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.0 3.5 3.8
9 Miles McBride NY 12.8 3.0 3.5
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.3 3.0 1.5
11 Mikal Bridges NY 9.9 3.9 3.0
12 Jared McCain OKC 9.0 2.0 1.1
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 8.9 5.7 1.8
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.5 2.0 1.6
15 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.0 3.3 1.3
16 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 3.1 2.4
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.0 9.3 1.1
18 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 6.8 8.9 3.7
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.5 2.5 1.1
20 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 3.3 1.7
21 Nikola Topic OKC 5.8 1.9 2.8
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.2 0.9
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.9 1.8 1.2
24 Jose Alvarado NY 4.0 1.1 3.2
25 Branden Carlson OKC 3.6 2.5 0.7
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.9 1.5
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.9 0.8 0.4
28 Jeremy Sochan NY 1.6 1.5 0.3
29 Trey Jemison III NY 1.1 1.1 0.3
30 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 1.1 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.