NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
134–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU29393333134
NO29183322102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 32 36 13 7
Kevin Durant S 29 20 4 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 20 4 3
Tari Eason 22 15 8 1
Amen Thompson S 35 14 8 5
Aaron Holiday 25 9 3 2
Clint Capela 16 6 14 3
Reed Sheppard S 21 6 2 2
Jae'Sean Tate 13 4 2 0
Josh Okogie 5 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 28 19 4 6
Saddiq Bey S 31 18 7 1
Zion Williamson S 25 18 4 3
Derik Queen 24 13 3 1
Jeremiah Fears 22 12 2 5
Herbert Jones S 30 10 3 2
Yves Missi S 31 8 5 1
Jordan Hawkins 5 2 0 0
Karlo Matkovic 17 2 3 0
Micah Peavy 16 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes dunk (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Yves Missi NO
7%
9 Jeremiah Fears NO
7%
10 Kevin Durant HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
7%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.5 5.1 5.7
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 8.4 6.0
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.5 9.1 5.2
4 Zion Williamson NO 20.9 5.6 2.9
5 Dejounte Murray NO 20.2 5.7 6.5
6 Saddiq Bey NO 18.4 4.7 3.5
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 18.0 7.2 2.7
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.2 4.3 4.9
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 12.3 2.9 3.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.2 3.2 2.7
11 Jordan Poole NO 8.8 2.8 3.0
12 Tari Eason HOU 8.7 6.4 1.6
13 Derik Queen NO 8.4 5.2 2.3
14 Karlo Matkovic NO 6.9 4.3 0.9
15 Yves Missi NO 6.0 6.3 1.7
16 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.4 6.3 1.1
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.5 1.2
18 Clint Capela HOU 4.8 5.2 1.0
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.5 2.7 1.6
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.1 5.8 1.2
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.7 1.5 0.6
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.7 1.3 0.7
23 Josh Okogie HOU 2.9 1.5 0.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 0.9 0.4
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.3 1.2 0.5
26 Isaiah Crawford HOU 1.8 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.