NBA games

WSH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
88–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH1532192288
POR24343332123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home POR
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Riley 26 14 1 1
Bub Carrington S 22 11 2 4
Justin Champagnie 24 10 2 1
Tristan Vukcevic S 16 10 2 0
Sharife Cooper 19 10 1 2
Julian Reese S 39 8 13 4
Anthony Gill 31 8 3 0
Jamir Watkins 17 8 2 0
Leaky Black S 22 5 8 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 24 4 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Toumani Camara S 28 23 7 1
Scoot Henderson S 25 21 3 7
Deni Avdija S 28 20 7 5
Jrue Holiday S 22 11 1 2
Matisse Thybulle 19 10 5 2
Kris Murray 31 9 2 2
Blake Wesley 11 7 3 0
Donovan Clingan S 21 6 5 1
Yang Hansen 11 6 4 0
Jayson Kent 13 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scoot Henderson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Scoot Henderson makes 15-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Clingan POR
11%
2 Deni Avdija POR
10%
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
4 Julian Reese WSH
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
8 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
9 Leaky Black WSH
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.4 7.1 8.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.9 4.5 3.7
3 Jerami Grant POR 18.6 3.9 2.4
4 Donovan Clingan POR 17.2 12.8 3.1
5 Scoot Henderson POR 16.4 3.6 3.8
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.3 4.8 3.3
7 Will Riley WSH 15.9 4.1 3.1
8 Jrue Holiday POR 15.2 4.6 6.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.4 4.1 3.0
10 Bub Carrington WSH 14.0 3.3 4.5
11 Julian Reese WSH 12.9 10.6 1.6
12 Jaden Hardy WSH 12.4 2.3 1.6
13 Alex Sarr WSH 11.5 6.3 2.2
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.2 4.4 1.4
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 9.8 3.5 1.2
16 Leaky Black WSH 9.4 5.4 1.7
17 Robert Williams III POR 8.9 9.3 1.0
18 Jamir Watkins WSH 7.9 3.9 2.1
19 Anthony Gill WSH 7.5 3.9 1.8
20 Sharife Cooper WSH 7.4 2.7 3.0
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.8 2.7 1.2
22 Kris Murray POR 6.3 3.2 1.9
23 Vit Krejci POR 5.5 2.8 1.6
24 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.0 2.3 1.8
25 Blake Wesley POR 4.6 1.5 1.9
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.5 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.