NBA games

ORL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
87–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2023251987
TOR38324326139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 27 17 3 2
Jalen Suggs S 26 13 4 5
Tristan da Silva S 25 12 3 0
Paolo Banchero S 30 9 5 3
Jett Howard 19 9 0 0
Jevon Carter 25 7 1 3
Moritz Wagner 12 7 4 1
Goga Bitadze 10 6 4 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 4 4 1
Noah Penda 14 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 26 24 3 3
Scottie Barnes S 28 23 5 15
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 19 4 0
A.J. Lawson 19 14 2 2
Jamal Shead S 23 12 2 10
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 11 6 0
Gradey Dick 23 11 3 1
Jakob Poeltl S 25 11 7 3
Alijah Martin 13 8 4 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 11 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes layup (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.1 7.1 6.0
2 Desmond Bane ORL 22.0 4.1 4.7
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 5.2 3.6
4 Brandon Ingram TOR 20.2 5.1 3.6
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.9 7.1 6.6
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.1 4.2 4.7
7 Tristan da Silva ORL 15.3 4.2 2.0
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.5 6.9 2.1
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 8.4 2.3
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.7 4.8 1.9
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.9 2.8 1.5
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.7 4.2 1.3
13 Jevon Carter ORL 8.5 2.6 1.7
14 Jamal Cain ORL 8.2 3.2 1.2
15 Jett Howard ORL 6.7 2.2 1.1
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.9 5.3
17 Gradey Dick TOR 5.4 1.5 1.2
18 Moritz Wagner ORL 5.0 3.5 0.7
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 3.1 1.5
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.9 2.0 0.7
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.3 0.9
22 Noah Penda ORL 3.6 2.0 1.1
23 Markelle Fultz TOR 3.4 1.3 2.2
24 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.2 2.1 0.9
25 Alijah Martin TOR 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 2.0 1.5 0.7
27 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.