NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS27362625114
CHA2128262499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 31 32 5 8
Payton Pritchard S 37 28 6 6
Neemias Queta S 29 17 8 1
Baylor Scheierman 28 14 1 3
Ron Harper Jr. 14 7 3 1
Sam Hauser S 34 7 3 0
Jordan Walsh S 34 3 7 2
Hugo Gonzalez 13 3 3 0
Luka Garza 13 2 1 2
Charles Bassey 1 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 26 19 4 3
Miles Bridges S 29 14 2 2
Brandon Miller S 32 13 6 4
Kon Knueppel S 32 13 4 2
Coby White 20 11 4 1
Sion James 22 11 2 4
Liam McNeeley 11 10 6 0
Moussa Diabate S 25 4 6 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 13 2 2 2
Tre Mann 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 25-foot running jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
11%
5 Sam Hauser BOS
11%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS
8%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
56%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
15%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.0 4.9 6.2
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 20.3 8.7 4.0
3 Brandon Miller CHA 18.3 5.3 4.0
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.1 4.0 4.8
5 Coby White CHA 18.0 3.9 3.3
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.3 5.2 3.4
7 Miles Bridges CHA 15.5 5.5 2.5
8 Neemias Queta BOS 9.0 7.5 1.9
9 Luka Garza BOS 8.4 3.2 1.1
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.9 8.0 2.4
11 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.5 1.3
12 Baylor Scheierman BOS 7.6 5.6 1.9
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.5 4.0 0.9
14 Sion James CHA 5.4 2.6 1.7
15 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.6 2.8 0.6
16 Josh Green CHA 4.4 1.6 0.8
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.6 2.6 0.6
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.0 0.9 0.4
19 Liam McNeeley CHA 2.5 1.5 0.5
20 Charles Bassey BOS 2.3 4.4 0.2
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.2 0.8 0.3
22 Tre Mann CHA 2.1 0.8 0.5
23 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.4 1.1 0.4
24 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.4 0.3
25 Max Shulga BOS 1.2 0.6 0.3
26 John Tonje BOS 1.0 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.