NBA games

MIA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
118–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA36393211118
IND34452927135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home IND
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 31 3 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 17 8 2
Pelle Larsson S 36 15 5 3
Andrew Wiggins S 37 15 6 5
Bam Adebayo S 33 15 12 3
Davion Mitchell S 35 12 3 8
Kasparas Jakucionis 13 5 0 1
Kel'el Ware 15 5 3 2
Myron Gardner 1 2 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 7 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 30 11 6
Micah Potter 20 21 5 0
Kobe Brown 33 18 4 5
T.J. McConnell 18 15 2 9
Andrew Nembhard S 36 15 3 10
Obi Toppin 15 12 2 3
Quenton Jackson S 20 10 3 1
Jay Huff 16 6 5 0
Ben Sheppard 23 5 2 1
Ethan Thompson S 10 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
13%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
5 Norman Powell MIA
12%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
8 Ethan Thompson IND
8%
9 Jay Huff IND
8%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 27.5 10.1 4.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.2 5.6 5.3
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.4 5.5 3.1
4 Norman Powell MIA 18.7 4.0 3.1
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.2 3.4 8.8
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.4 3.9 5.9
7 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.3 3.8 3.8
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 14.2 5.0 2.3
9 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.3 3.4 4.8
10 Obi Toppin IND 10.4 3.7 2.3
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 7.6 1.3
12 Jay Huff IND 9.9 3.9 1.7
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.7 2.9 5.8
14 Kobe Brown IND 8.5 3.7 1.7
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.0 2.5 1.2
16 Taelon Peter IND 8.0 2.3 1.7
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.9 3.1 2.3
18 Micah Potter IND 7.2 3.7 1.2
19 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 2.8 1.3
20 Quenton Jackson IND 6.9 2.1 3.2
21 Jalen Slawson IND 6.1 3.9 1.9
22 Kam Jones IND 5.5 1.7 3.4
23 Myron Gardner MIA 4.9 3.1 1.0
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.8 2.1 0.7
25 Ethan Thompson IND 4.7 1.4 1.0
26 Dru Smith MIA 4.3 2.0 1.8
27 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.8 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.