NBA games

LAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
127–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29283931127
MIL25212839113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIL
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 27 28 6 1
John Collins S 35 22 3 3
Kawhi Leonard S 23 20 8 2
Darius Garland S 27 15 2 11
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 13 4 0
Kris Dunn 32 10 2 5
Brook Lopez S 25 8 7 1
Jordan Miller 24 5 5 3
Kobe Sanders 10 3 0 0
Nicolas Batum 12 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 37 36 2 4
Taurean Prince 38 18 6 8
AJ Green 28 15 3 3
Cormac Ryan 20 13 0 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 33 13 6 0
Ousmane Dieng S 22 7 2 4
Jericho Sims S 23 6 5 3
Pete Nance S 39 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"John Collins makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
12%
3 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
10%
4 John Collins LAC
9%
5 Brook Lopez LAC
9%
6 Ousmane Dieng MIL
9%
7 Pete Nance MIL
9%
8 Myles Turner MIL
9%
9 Darius Garland LAC
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
16%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 29.1 5.9 4.5
2 Darius Garland LAC 25.4 3.3 7.7
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 21.7 4.3 6.9
4 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 21.4 6.0 3.0
5 Bobby Portis MIL 14.8 5.6 1.9
6 John Collins LAC 11.9 5.9 1.8
7 Ousmane Dieng MIL 11.6 4.4 3.9
8 Jordan Miller LAC 10.9 3.8 2.8
9 Brook Lopez LAC 10.5 4.9 1.9
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 4.5 2.1
11 Myles Turner MIL 9.8 4.0 1.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 7.6 3.5 3.3
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.0 2.1 1.8
14 Taurean Prince MIL 6.9 2.9 1.3
15 AJ Green MIL 6.9 2.7 1.9
16 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.8 1.5 0.9
17 Jericho Sims MIL 6.8 5.4 1.6
18 Pete Nance MIL 6.3 3.4 1.6
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.1 2.6 1.0
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.1 1.6 1.5
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.9 1.8 1.2
22 Cormac Ryan MIL 3.7 1.4 0.7
23 Sean Pedulla LAC 3.6 1.0 1.0
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.8 0.9
25 Norchad Omier LAC 2.8 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.