NBA games

UTAH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21243826109
PHX39343526134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home PHX
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh S 33 26 2 2
Kyle Filipowski S 29 26 9 3
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 14 2 1
Ace Bailey S 34 13 6 2
Kennedy Chandler 24 11 3 8
Oscar Tshiebwe 16 7 7 1
Bez Mbeng 17 5 3 1
Elijah Harkless S 27 4 5 5
John Konchar 22 3 3 5
Cody Williams S 29 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 22 31 6 3
Devin Booker S 27 26 3 8
Grayson Allen 21 19 3 3
Oso Ighodaro S 28 13 8 2
Khaman Maluach 20 12 9 0
Ryan Dunn 20 9 8 2
Jordan Goodwin 23 8 9 1
Rasheer Fleming 18 7 6 0
Royce O'Neale S 22 6 3 2
Koby Brea 5 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brice Sensabaugh · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green PHX
14%
2 Ace Bailey UTAH
12%
3 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
10%
5 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
9%
7 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
8%
9 Elijah Harkless UTAH
6%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
30%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.6 4.5 6.8
2 Jalen Green PHX 25.1 5.1 4.9
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 22.3 4.0 3.5
4 Grayson Allen PHX 19.6 3.7 5.4
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 19.6 5.0 2.8
6 Cody Williams UTAH 19.4 4.5 4.4
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.0 3.1 6.0
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 16.0 8.3 4.3
9 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 14.7 2.9 5.4
10 Collin Gillespie PHX 13.5 4.5 5.0
11 Elijah Harkless UTAH 13.1 3.1 4.2
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.1 4.7 2.7
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 10.9 7.0 3.5
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.1 5.9 1.9
15 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 7.8 5.9 1.2
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 7.8 4.3 1.0
17 John Konchar UTAH 7.7 5.6 2.0
18 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.4 3.7 3.3
19 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.9 1.9 1.2
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.1 3.6 1.1
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.3 3.7 0.8
22 Kevin Love UTAH 4.3 4.6 1.3
23 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.0 2.1 1.5
24 Koby Brea PHX 3.6 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.