NBA games

DET @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET33162535109
MIN2420162787

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIN
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 28 18 4 4
Ronald Holland II 20 13 2 0
Daniss Jenkins S 28 13 8 4
Paul Reed 17 12 7 3
Kevin Huerter 22 11 2 1
Jalen Duren S 29 10 13 5
Duncan Robinson S 24 10 2 2
Caris LeVert 20 8 2 4
Ausar Thompson S 24 6 6 0
Javonte Green 14 6 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 33 22 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 32 14 12 0
Julius Randle S 31 11 8 4
Jaylen Clark 18 9 4 0
Naz Reid 24 8 4 1
Terrence Shannon Jr. S 25 8 3 3
Bones Hyland 26 6 1 0
Joan Beringer 4 4 0 0
Mike Conley S 22 3 1 6
Kyle Anderson 16 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
15%
2 Julius Randle MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Daniss Jenkins DET
10%
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Kevin Huerter DET
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
8%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Duren DET 24.2 10.8 2.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 20.2 6.0 4.2
3 Daniss Jenkins DET 16.1 3.8 6.2
4 Tobias Harris DET 13.4 5.3 3.4
5 Bones Hyland MIN 12.4 1.9 3.2
6 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 6.0 1.6
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 10.9 1.4
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 3.4 2.5
9 Ausar Thompson DET 10.3 5.6 2.7
10 Kevin Huerter DET 9.7 3.4 2.5
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.4 3.5 2.6
12 Paul Reed DET 7.7 4.2 1.0
13 Ronald Holland II DET 7.2 3.1 1.3
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.0 2.0 2.1
15 Caris LeVert DET 6.8 3.1 2.6
16 Javonte Green DET 6.6 2.4 1.0
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.1 3.6 2.8
18 Tolu Smith DET 4.2 3.9 0.7
19 Mike Conley MIN 4.0 2.1 2.3
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 1.1 0.8
21 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.2 0.6
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.7 0.8 0.4
23 Julian Phillips MIN 2.6 0.8 0.3
24 Joan Beringer MIN 1.8 1.4 0.2
25 Joe Ingles MIN 1.1 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.