NBA games

CHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
124–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30283036124
MEM28284227125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MEM
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 39 29 10 3
Collin Sexton 30 26 1 2
Tre Jones S 29 19 9 6
Josh Giddey S 35 18 13 10
Rob Dillingham 15 8 2 2
Isaac Okoro S 30 7 4 1
Leonard Miller S 16 5 4 0
Patrick Williams 23 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 24 24 9 4
Tyler Burton 27 18 5 3
Jahmai Mashack 30 17 2 2
DeJon Jarreau 19 14 2 3
Rayan Rupert S 30 14 4 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 15 12 4 1
GG Jackson S 21 10 4 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 30 7 3 6
Javon Small S 15 6 2 4
Adama Bal 28 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tre Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Tre Jones makes 1-foot reverse layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tre Jones CHI
13%
2 GG Jackson MEM
10%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
10%
5 Nick Richards CHI
8%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
8 Javon Small MEM
7%
9 Rayan Rupert MEM
7%
10 Cedric Coward MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Matas Buzelis CHI 22.7 7.2 2.2
2 Josh Giddey CHI 20.9 8.6 11.8
3 Collin Sexton CHI 20.4 3.2 3.9
4 GG Jackson MEM 19.5 5.2 2.2
5 Tre Jones CHI 18.4 4.8 5.8
6 Anfernee Simons CHI 16.5 3.2 2.8
7 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 15.6 4.9 1.8
8 Javon Small MEM 15.0 4.3 4.7
9 Leonard Miller CHI 13.1 6.7 1.7
10 Cedric Coward MEM 12.8 5.1 2.7
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.1 2.9 1.6
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.3 3.4 1.9
13 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.9 2.9 5.1
14 Rob Dillingham CHI 10.8 3.1 3.0
15 Nick Richards CHI 10.5 7.8 1.2
16 Rayan Rupert MEM 10.5 4.7 1.5
17 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 10.0 4.9 1.7
18 Cam Spencer MEM 10.0 2.6 5.3
19 Tyler Burton MEM 9.3 4.0 1.4
20 DeJon Jarreau MEM 8.4 5.0 3.8
21 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 2.8 1.9
22 Jahmai Mashack MEM 6.6 3.0 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.