NBA games

SAC @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
113–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30242831113
ATL27392235123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home ATL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 30 22 4 3
Maxime Raynaud S 30 18 10 0
Precious Achiuwa S 20 16 6 2
DaQuan Jeffries 27 15 3 1
Daeqwon Plowden 28 14 3 0
Killian Hayes 17 10 1 4
Malik Monk S 27 10 2 7
Nique Clifford 23 3 4 5
Dylan Cardwell 19 3 7 4
Devin Carter S 18 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 36 27 5 8
Jalen Johnson S 37 26 5 10
CJ McCollum S 30 22 4 5
Jock Landale S 34 19 13 4
Zaccharie Risacher 19 13 2 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 32 10 7 2
Corey Kispert 16 4 1 0
Gabe Vincent 25 2 3 3
Christian Koloko 11 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
14%
2 CJ McCollum ATL
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
5 Precious Achiuwa SAC
12%
6 Malik Monk SAC
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
8 Nique Clifford SAC
9%
9 Devin Carter SAC
7%
10 Dylan Cardwell SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
21%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.8 8.7 9.3
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 3.7 4.0
3 CJ McCollum ATL 21.5 4.0 4.7
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.1 3.8 5.8
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 19.0 8.4 2.3
6 Precious Achiuwa SAC 15.7 9.9 1.7
7 Malik Monk SAC 14.1 2.3 4.4
8 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 13.9 3.4 1.5
9 Nique Clifford SAC 13.1 5.4 3.8
10 Devin Carter SAC 11.0 3.6 2.9
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.5 4.4 1.1
12 Killian Hayes SAC 6.5 2.9 3.0
13 Corey Kispert ATL 6.2 2.2 1.4
14 Jock Landale ATL 6.2 3.0 1.7
15 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.0 7.4 1.7
16 Doug McDermott SAC 5.8 1.9 1.1
17 Gabe Vincent ATL 5.2 1.4 1.2
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.6 2.9 0.9
19 Buddy Hield ATL 4.4 1.7 1.2
20 Asa Newell ATL 3.9 1.7 0.5
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.3 3.1 0.6
22 Christian Koloko ATL 2.8 2.4 0.5
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.6 0.8 0.6
24 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.1 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.