NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI25392826118
CHA36332817114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 29 6 2
Tyrese Maxey S 43 26 7 8
Paul George S 36 26 13 2
VJ Edgecombe S 31 13 5 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. 28 9 5 0
Quentin Grimes 29 8 1 3
Dominick Barlow S 15 3 2 0
Adem Bona 6 2 0 0
Justin Edwards 8 2 0 0
Andre Drummond 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 34 29 8 0
LaMelo Ball S 37 20 3 8
Coby White 19 16 4 2
Kon Knueppel S 36 11 11 2
Miles Bridges S 30 11 6 1
Moussa Diabate S 25 10 11 2
Grant Williams 25 9 8 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 18 4 1 0
Josh Green 10 2 0 1
Sion James 6 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moussa Diabate · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Moussa Diabate makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
15%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
9 Paul George PHI
7%
10 Moussa Diabate CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 29.1 7.1 5.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.9 4.2 5.6
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.4 5.0 6.3
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 22.3 4.6 3.9
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 20.7 6.2 4.7
6 Brandon Miller CHA 20.3 6.0 4.7
7 Coby White CHA 19.9 3.8 4.1
8 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.6 4.3 3.9
9 Paul George PHI 18.1 4.7 4.5
10 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 5.1 2.7
11 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.8 4.9 2.4
12 Justin Edwards PHI 12.5 2.9 2.4
13 Cameron Payne PHI 11.3 3.0 3.3
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.8 5.4 1.7
15 Trendon Watford PHI 8.8 4.0 2.6
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.3 8.9 2.5
17 Jabari Walker PHI 7.9 3.4 1.0
18 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 7.6 2.7 1.2
19 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.9 4.4 1.0
20 Grant Williams CHA 6.7 3.1 1.7
21 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 6.2 1.0
22 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 6.0 1.7
23 Sion James CHA 5.8 2.9 1.7
24 Josh Green CHA 4.6 1.8 0.9
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.7 1.0 0.5
26 Tre Mann CHA 2.7 1.1 0.8
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.4 1.2 0.7
28 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.1 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.