SA @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
127–95
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 37 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 127 |
| MIL | 24 | 21 | 34 | 16 | 95 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA
away
home
MIL
92%
8%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama S | 31 | 23 | 15 | 6 |
| Stephon Castle S | 29 | 22 | 10 | 10 |
| Devin Vassell S | 24 | 16 | 4 | 1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 23 | 16 | 0 | 5 |
| Dylan Harper | 21 | 14 | 1 | 2 |
| De'Aaron Fox S | 21 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
| Julian Champagnie S | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Stephon Castle ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 1-foot layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
De'Aaron Fox
SA
11%
2
Victor Wembanyama
SA
11%
3
Stephon Castle
SA
10%
4
Ryan Rollins
MIL
9%
5
Ousmane Dieng
MIL
9%
6
Jericho Sims
MIL
8%
7
Devin Vassell
SA
8%
8
Pete Nance
MIL
7%
9
Dylan Harper
SA
7%
10
Myles Turner
MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
35%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | SA | 28.1 | 10.8 | 3.9 |
| 2 | De'Aaron Fox | SA | 21.0 | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| 3 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 20.6 | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Stephon Castle | SA | 19.5 | 5.8 | 9.0 |
| 5 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 14.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 |
| 6 | Dylan Harper | SA | 13.7 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| 7 | Keldon Johnson | SA | 13.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 8 | Devin Vassell | SA | 12.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 |
| 9 | Ousmane Dieng | MIL | 11.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 |
| 10 | Julian Champagnie | SA | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 11 | Harrison Barnes | SA | 8.9 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 12 | Myles Turner | MIL | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 13 | AJ Green | MIL | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 14 | Carter Bryant | SA | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 |
| 15 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 6.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Pete Nance | MIL | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 19 | Luke Kornet | SA | 4.7 | 5.1 | 1.2 |
| 20 | Lindy Waters III | SA | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 21 | Cormac Ryan | MIL | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Kelly Olynyk | SA | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 23 | Jordan McLaughlin | SA | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 24 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 25 | Mason Plumlee | SA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 26 | Bismack Biyombo | SA | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.