NBA games

BKN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
99–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN3029251599
LAL35262431116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home LAL
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Minott 26 18 6 0
Ziaire Williams S 25 16 2 2
Nic Claxton S 23 16 7 3
Ben Saraf 22 10 3 2
Jalen Wilson 15 9 6 2
Nolan Traore S 26 9 1 7
Drake Powell S 22 7 0 1
Noah Clowney S 24 5 3 2
Terance Mann 22 5 4 2
Chaney Johnson 14 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 41 8 3
Austin Reaves S 40 26 8 5
LeBron James S 37 14 6 8
Jaxson Hayes 26 10 8 1
Deandre Ayton S 22 9 7 0
Rui Hachimura 26 8 3 0
Luke Kennard 17 5 4 1
Bronny James 4 3 0 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 10 0 2 0
Jake LaRavia S 18 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
7%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
7 Ben Saraf BKN
7%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
10 Terance Mann BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
86%
Jumper
2%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 27.8 6.7 6.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 24.8 4.5 6.3
3 LeBron James LAL 21.6 7.7 6.8
4 Ziaire Williams BKN 13.4 2.9 2.0
5 Ben Saraf BKN 11.1 2.7 4.7
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 10.6 8.2 1.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.7 2.8 1.0
8 Josh Minott BKN 9.2 2.9 1.6
9 Nic Claxton BKN 9.2 6.2 2.2
10 Nolan Traore BKN 8.6 2.1 4.2
11 Chaney Johnson BKN 8.5 4.1 2.2
12 Noah Clowney BKN 8.4 3.1 1.3
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 5.0 1.0
14 Tyson Etienne BKN 7.4 1.4 1.7
15 Malachi Smith BKN 7.3 2.5 2.3
16 Drake Powell BKN 7.1 2.0 1.4
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.8 2.0 1.0
18 Luke Kennard LAL 6.7 2.0 1.5
19 Terance Mann BKN 6.4 3.1 2.1
20 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.6 3.4 1.5
21 Ochai Agbaji BKN 5.4 1.8 0.7
22 E.J. Liddell BKN 4.4 2.5 1.2
23 Bronny James LAL 3.9 1.4 1.2
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.8 2.7 0.7
25 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.4 2.6 0.8
26 Drew Timme LAL 2.6 1.1 0.5
27 Kobe Bufkin LAL 2.4 1.0 0.4
28 Dalton Knecht LAL 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.