NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
100–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32242321100
POR2229251793

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III 27 26 9 3
Cooper Flagg S 38 24 3 2
Naji Marshall S 33 19 3 3
Brandon Williams 20 10 1 5
Klay Thompson 18 7 2 3
P.J. Washington S 27 5 5 0
Max Christie S 25 5 3 2
Dwight Powell S 21 4 5 3
Ryan Nembhard 12 0 3 2
Tyler Smith 9 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jrue Holiday S 35 23 4 3
Deni Avdija S 38 20 9 6
Jerami Grant S 29 19 4 0
Scoot Henderson 22 9 2 3
Toumani Camara S 39 8 5 3
Donovan Clingan S 32 6 17 0
Matisse Thybulle 16 4 0 1
Robert Williams III 11 4 5 0
Kris Murray 12 0 0 0
Sidy Cissoko 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cooper Flagg · Layup (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Cooper Flagg makes 1-foot layup (Dwight Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
2 Donovan Clingan POR
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
8 Dwight Powell DAL
8%
9 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 24.9 6.5 7.5
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.8 4.5 3.6
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.0 7.5 6.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.2 2.6
5 Naji Marshall DAL 19.7 4.5 4.6
6 Scoot Henderson POR 18.2 3.7 4.1
7 Donovan Clingan POR 17.3 12.3 3.1
8 Jrue Holiday POR 15.4 4.5 6.3
9 Toumani Camara POR 15.3 4.4 2.8
10 P.J. Washington DAL 14.2 7.4 1.7
11 Caleb Love POR 12.4 2.6 3.6
12 Klay Thompson DAL 11.3 1.9 1.4
13 Brandon Williams DAL 11.3 3.5 3.1
14 Max Christie DAL 10.0 2.6 1.5
15 Robert Williams III POR 9.6 9.9 1.2
16 Khris Middleton DAL 9.1 2.8 1.6
17 Vit Krejci POR 7.4 3.1 1.6
18 Marvin Bagley III DAL 7.0 5.3 1.4
19 Kris Murray POR 7.0 3.1 1.9
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.7 2.7 1.2
21 Ryan Nembhard DAL 6.4 2.3 4.9
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 5.7 2.3 1.9
23 Blake Wesley POR 5.6 1.8 2.0
24 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 3.3 0.7
25 Tyler Smith DAL 3.4 1.2 0.5
26 AJ Johnson DAL 3.0 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.