Friday, March 27, 2026

WSH @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final

126–131

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
WSH	25	35	34	32	126
GS	38	34	20	39	131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (GS) / 10 (WSH) games this season

WSH away

home GS

21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Will Riley	29	22	5	5	8/12	3/5	6
Bilal Coulibaly S	19	21	6	2	8/16	4/9	-7
Bub Carrington S	26	16	2	5	6/10	4/5	-5
Jaden Hardy	12	14	0	0	4/5	4/5	-7
Anthony Gill	25	14	1	3	7/9	0/1	0
Tre Johnson S	22	11	1	0	5/11	1/5	-11
Alex Sarr S	23	8	9	3	3/10	1/4	-8
Sharife Cooper	11	7	1	4	3/4	0/0	8
Justin Champagnie	25	6	2	3	3/8	0/4	6
Leaky Black S	42	4	8	4	2/9	0/3	-8

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Kristaps Porzingis S	29	28	8	3	9/17	5/11	5
Gui Santos S	33	27	4	4	8/12	3/5	5
Brandin Podziemski S	33	22	10	7	6/13	3/8	7
Gary Payton II	25	15	5	2	7/11	0/1	4
Pat Spencer	25	13	5	2	5/9	1/2	3
LJ Cryer	27	12	2	2	4/13	4/10	11
Will Richard S	25	8	2	2	3/5	2/4	-10
Draymond Green S	32	6	4	10	2/4	1/3	4
Omer Yurtseven	8	0	3	0	0/0	0/0	-4
Malevy Leons	3	0	0	0	0/1	0/0	0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Bub Carrington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1

"Bub Carrington makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Brandin Podziemski GS

11%

2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH

10%

3 Gui Santos GS

10%

4 Will Riley WSH

10%

5 Kristaps Porzingis GS

6 Alex Sarr WSH

7 Justin Champagnie WSH

8 Draymond Green GS

9 Tre Johnson WSH

10 Bub Carrington WSH

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

36%

Dunk

Free Throw

Jumper

25%

Layup

23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Gui Santos	GS	19.1	5.1	5.2	27	4	4
2	Brandin Podziemski	GS	18.6	5.7	4.7	22	10	7
3	Kristaps Porzingis	GS	17.0	4.7	3.0	28	8	3
4	Will Riley	WSH	16.5	4.0	2.9	22	5	5
5	Bilal Coulibaly	WSH	15.9	4.9	3.6	21	6	2
6	Bub Carrington	WSH	14.1	3.4	4.9	16	2	5
7	Gary Payton II	GS	13.5	6.4	2.6	15	5	2
8	Jaden Hardy	WSH	12.3	2.2	1.8	14	0	0
9	Alex Sarr	WSH	12.2	6.1	2.5	8	9	3
10	Draymond Green	GS	11.7	5.4	6.1	6	4	10
11	Tre Johnson	WSH	11.2	3.0	1.8	11	1	0
12	Tristan Vukcevic	WSH	10.3	3.5	1.3	—	—	—
13	Justin Champagnie	WSH	10.1	4.1	1.3	6	2	3
14	Leaky Black	WSH	10.0	5.3	1.6	4	8	4
15	Pat Spencer	GS	9.9	2.8	3.5	13	5	2
16	Jamir Watkins	WSH	9.0	3.9	2.3	3	3	0
17	LJ Cryer	GS	8.5	2.3	1.4	12	2	2
18	Will Richard	GS	7.4	2.9	1.5	8	2	2
19	Anthony Gill	WSH	7.2	3.7	1.9	14	1	3
20	Sharife Cooper	WSH	7.2	2.6	3.2	7	1	4
21	Omer Yurtseven	GS	3.7	3.0	0.9	0	3	0
22	Malevy Leons	GS	2.9	1.7	0.6	0	0	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.