NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
129135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH26364324129
DEN37253637135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Filipowski S 25 25 8 5
Cody Williams S 30 24 0 7
Kennedy Chandler 29 16 1 7
John Konchar 30 16 8 2
Ace Bailey S 27 15 7 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 25 13 4 6
Elijah Harkless S 41 11 4 2
Oscar Tshiebwe 12 9 9 3
Bez Mbeng 19 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 33 15 12
Jamal Murray S 39 31 6 14
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 21 0 0
Aaron Gordon S 31 17 7 1
Cameron Johnson S 26 12 4 0
Bruce Brown 15 7 3 1
Christian Braun S 22 7 2 0
Peyton Watson 21 7 5 4
Julian Strawther 5 0 2 2
Spencer Jones 14 0 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cody Williams UTAH
11%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Isaiah Collier UTAH
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
6 Christian Braun DEN
8%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
8 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
6%
10 Elijah Harkless UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
39%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.0 13.2 12.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 27.0 4.7 6.9
3 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 22.0 3.9 3.1
4 Peyton Watson DEN 21.4 5.1 3.5
5 Ace Bailey UTAH 20.9 4.6 3.2
6 Cody Williams UTAH 20.1 4.8 4.6
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 17.7 3.1 6.3
8 Christian Braun DEN 16.4 5.3 2.9
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 16.1 3.9 2.6
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.1 5.2 3.1
11 Kennedy Chandler UTAH 14.7 3.1 5.5
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 14.3 8.6 4.2
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 13.2 3.2 2.3
14 Elijah Harkless UTAH 13.0 2.9 4.4
15 Bruce Brown DEN 9.2 3.3 1.8
16 Bez Mbeng UTAH 7.9 3.7 3.9
17 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 7.7 5.8 1.2
18 Spencer Jones DEN 7.6 4.1 1.3
19 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.4 1.9 1.3
20 John Konchar UTAH 7.0 4.9 1.8
21 Julian Strawther DEN 6.6 2.1 1.0
22 Kevin Love UTAH 4.6 4.8 1.4
23 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 4.6 3.6 0.7
24 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.5 1.5 0.6
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.2 0.7
26 Tyus Jones DEN 3.4 1.2 1.1
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.