NO @ TOR
NBA
Scotiabank Arena
·Final
106–119
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 25 | 19 | 31 | 31 | 106 |
| TOR | 29 | 30 | 31 | 29 | 119 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
TOR
43%
57%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson S | 31 | 22 | 7 | 4 |
| Saddiq Bey S | 30 | 19 | 3 | 2 |
| Derik Queen | 23 | 13 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Poole | 23 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
| Jeremiah Fears S | 28 | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 19 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| Yves Missi S | 19 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 21 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Micah Peavy | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 17 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Zion Williamson ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
18%
2
RJ Barrett
TOR
15%
3
Scottie Barnes
TOR
12%
4
Brandon Ingram
TOR
11%
5
Saddiq Bey
NO
11%
6
Jakob Poeltl
TOR
10%
7
Herbert Jones
NO
8%
8
DeAndre Jordan
NO
8%
9
Jamal Shead
TOR
7%
10
Jeremiah Fears
NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
10%
Layup
31%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RJ Barrett | TOR | 22.3 | 5.3 | 3.4 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NO | 20.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 |
| 3 | Brandon Ingram | TOR | 19.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 |
| 4 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 18.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| 5 | Scottie Barnes | TOR | 18.0 | 6.9 | 6.1 |
| 6 | Jakob Poeltl | TOR | 12.1 | 8.3 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 11.5 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 8 | Herbert Jones | NO | 11.0 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| 9 | Sandro Mamukelashvili | TOR | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Ja'Kobe Walter | TOR | 9.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Collin Murray-Boyles | TOR | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Jordan Poole | NO | 7.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| 13 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 7.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 |
| 14 | Derik Queen | NO | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 15 | Jamal Shead | TOR | 6.4 | 2.1 | 5.1 |
| 16 | Yves Missi | NO | 6.2 | 6.9 | 1.6 |
| 17 | Gradey Dick | TOR | 5.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 18 | DeAndre Jordan | NO | 5.0 | 6.0 | 1.1 |
| 19 | Jamison Battle | TOR | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 20 | Kevon Looney | NO | 4.3 | 5.9 | 1.1 |
| 21 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 22 | Jonathan Mogbo | TOR | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 23 | A.J. Lawson | TOR | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 24 | Garrett Temple | TOR | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Micah Peavy | NO | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 26 | Alijah Martin | TOR | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.