NBA games

NO @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
106119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO25193131106
TOR29303129119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 31 22 7 4
Saddiq Bey S 30 19 3 2
Derik Queen 23 13 8 0
Jordan Poole 23 12 2 6
Jeremiah Fears S 28 10 4 3
DeAndre Jordan 19 8 7 0
Yves Missi S 19 7 2 1
Jordan Hawkins 21 5 1 3
Micah Peavy 2 4 1 0
Karlo Matkovic 17 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 23 6 12
RJ Barrett S 31 18 6 4
Jakob Poeltl S 30 18 11 3
Ja'Kobe Walter S 34 18 1 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 18 9 2
Brandon Ingram S 31 13 6 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 12 9 2 0
Markelle Fultz 2 2 0 0
A.J. Lawson 5 0 2 0
Jamison Battle 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
18%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
15%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
11%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 DeAndre Jordan NO
8%
9 Jamal Shead TOR
7%
10 Jeremiah Fears NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
10%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 22.3 5.3 3.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.8 5.7 2.7
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 19.8 5.1 3.6
4 Saddiq Bey NO 18.2 4.9 3.0
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.0 6.9 6.1
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.1 8.3 1.9
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 11.5 2.6 3.1
8 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.2 2.8
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.2 4.7 1.8
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.0 2.9 1.4
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.8 4.6 1.4
12 Jordan Poole NO 7.7 2.7 2.0
13 Karlo Matkovic NO 7.3 3.9 0.8
14 Derik Queen NO 7.3 4.4 2.2
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.4 2.1 5.1
16 Yves Missi NO 6.2 6.9 1.6
17 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.8 1.1
18 DeAndre Jordan NO 5.0 6.0 1.1
19 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 2.3 0.8
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 5.9 1.1
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.6 1.5 0.6
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.2 2.1 0.8
23 A.J. Lawson TOR 2.6 1.2 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.2 0.7
25 Micah Peavy NO 2.5 1.3 0.5
26 Alijah Martin TOR 1.6 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.