NBA games

CHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
113–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI32352125113
OKC29333336131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home OKC
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 30 22 3 3
Tre Jones S 26 21 7 9
Isaac Okoro S 31 20 4 0
Matas Buzelis S 34 15 9 0
Leonard Miller 26 15 7 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 22 6 4 1
Josh Giddey S 33 5 7 11
Patrick Williams 18 4 5 1
Rob Dillingham 16 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 25 2 5
Cason Wallace S 31 21 5 2
Jalen Williams S 27 18 6 8
Ajay Mitchell 25 15 3 5
Isaiah Joe 18 15 3 1
Jaylin Williams 19 12 10 0
Aaron Wiggins 11 9 2 0
Alex Caruso 15 6 5 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 6 16 3
Luguentz Dort S 18 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaac Okoro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Isaac Okoro makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
16%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
4 Tre Jones CHI
15%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
7 Nick Richards CHI
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Collin Sexton CHI
0%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
82%
Jumper
4%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.1 4.7 7.9
2 Josh Giddey CHI 20.5 8.5 9.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.8 4.4 5.8
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 19.6 6.8 2.1
5 Collin Sexton CHI 17.2 2.8 3.2
6 Tre Jones CHI 17.2 4.2 4.9
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.1 3.8 4.0
8 Anfernee Simons CHI 14.9 3.0 2.5
9 Leonard Miller CHI 11.3 6.4 1.3
10 Rob Dillingham CHI 11.1 3.1 2.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.1 3.0 1.6
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 3.0 1.7
13 Jared McCain OKC 9.7 2.2 1.3
14 Nick Richards CHI 9.6 7.5 1.0
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.5 5.7 2.0
16 Guerschon Yabusele CHI 9.2 5.2 1.7
17 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.5 3.7 1.4
18 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 7.8 9.3 4.2
19 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 3.3 2.6
20 Patrick Williams CHI 7.0 2.4 1.6
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.9 3.0 1.3
22 Alex Caruso OKC 6.3 3.7 1.8
23 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.0 2.0 0.8
24 Branden Carlson OKC 3.2 2.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.