NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU32243132119
MEM30193327109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 25 6 10
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 21 16 4
Amen Thompson S 40 18 8 3
Tari Eason 29 16 7 1
Reed Sheppard S 28 15 5 5
Alperen Sengun S 33 14 8 7
Aaron Holiday 15 6 1 0
Clint Capela 15 2 5 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 29 31 7 2
Javon Small S 25 14 3 5
GG Jackson S 30 14 4 0
Cam Spencer 29 11 3 10
Cedric Coward S 25 10 4 2
Taj Gibson 9 8 1 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 23 7 2 1
Tyler Burton 25 5 2 1
Taylor Hendricks S 30 5 7 1
DeJon Jarreau 15 4 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Javon Small · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Javon Small makes running layup (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
3 GG Jackson MEM
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
9%
7 Ty Jerome MEM
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM
7%
10 Cedric Coward MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
34%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.4 5.4 5.6
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.2 9.0 6.4
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.8 9.5 5.7
4 Ty Jerome MEM 20.2 3.4 6.0
5 GG Jackson MEM 19.1 5.2 2.1
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.4 6.5 2.6
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 15.5 4.5 5.0
8 Javon Small MEM 14.6 4.3 4.4
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.5 4.4 1.6
10 Cedric Coward MEM 12.6 5.2 2.9
11 Taylor Hendricks MEM 12.3 4.9 1.6
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 2.7 1.5
13 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.7 2.3 5.3
14 Cam Spencer MEM 10.0 2.6 4.8
15 DeJon Jarreau MEM 8.9 4.4 3.6
16 Tyler Burton MEM 8.3 3.7 1.3
17 Tari Eason HOU 8.1 6.4 1.7
18 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 5.4 3.2 1.8
19 Clint Capela HOU 5.4 5.7 1.1
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.2 1.8 1.4
21 Taj Gibson MEM 3.9 2.1 0.6
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 1.7 0.7
23 Josh Okogie HOU 3.7 2.1 1.0
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.8 1.1 0.5
25 Isaiah Crawford HOU 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.