NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
128–149
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA27194141128
CLE40412840149

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 21 20 2 3
Norman Powell S 25 15 3 2
Bam Adebayo S 31 14 16 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 19 14 3 1
Kel'el Ware 21 14 8 1
Andrew Wiggins S 20 12 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 10 12 2 0
Tyler Herro S 31 11 3 5
Pelle Larsson 26 10 3 5
Myron Gardner 7 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus 23 29 8 1
Evan Mobley S 29 23 10 3
Jarrett Allen S 18 18 10 0
James Harden S 30 17 5 14
Thomas Bryant 14 11 4 0
Keon Ellis 25 10 0 2
Sam Merrill S 27 10 3 4
Dennis Schroder 20 8 0 5
Tyrese Proctor 6 6 1 0
Donovan Mitchell S 31 6 4 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 9-foot two point shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
5 Norman Powell MIA
8%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
7 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
8 James Harden CLE
8%
9 Bam Adebayo MIA
7%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
8%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 26.6 9.7 4.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.5 4.6 5.7
3 James Harden CLE 23.9 5.5 7.8
4 Tyler Herro MIA 22.4 5.6 5.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 22.0 10.6 3.3
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 20.1 9.7 1.8
7 Norman Powell MIA 17.9 3.8 2.9
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.7 5.1 2.5
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.3 3.6 3.4
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.9 4.0 5.9
11 Sam Merrill CLE 12.7 3.8 2.8
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.2 3.2 5.1
13 Keon Ellis CLE 10.3 3.4 1.6
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.1 7.7 1.3
15 Max Strus CLE 9.8 5.7 2.2
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.3 3.9 0.8
17 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 7.1 2.9 2.3
18 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.8 1.9 1.0
19 Dennis Schroder CLE 6.2 2.3 3.4
20 Dru Smith MIA 4.4 2.0 1.8
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.2 1.3 1.6
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.7 1.5 0.5
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.6 2.6 0.7
24 Olivier Sarr CLE 3.3 2.7 0.6
25 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 3.3 2.0 0.6
26 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.7 1.5 0.5
27 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 2.5 1.8 0.5
28 Riley Minix CLE 2.4 1.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.